The $2 million Kentucky Derby is finally here and although this may not be the best editions of the Run for the Roses, there are many options for bettors with 20 horses in the gate. Here’s is a rundown of the entire cast for the May 6 mile and a quarter classic at Churchill Downs including a glance at two also-eligible runners.
Girvin has much more speed than he has showed of late and note his only loss was on the grass off a layoff and he was getting to the winner that day. His style to quicken as they approach the top of the stretch is a very clever tactic and is should give him a shot to get first run on the deep closers. There are some concerns though. The fields he has beaten are a bit suspect and now he has quarter crack issues and his connections have had to adjust his training schedule. He has a quarter crack in his right foot and has been fitted with Z bar shoes. In 1996 Unbridled’s Song had a quarter crack going into the Derby and finished 5th after having the lead.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Classic Empire rebounded solidly in the Arkansas Derby after the Holy Bull fiasco. This runner won the Juvenile by being with the pace the entire race when never behind by more than a half-length and he won the Arkansas Derby coming from seventh. One of the most important things he has going for him is the affinity he has shown for Churchill Downs. The colt also exits a potent prep as Arkansas Derby winners Sunny’s Halo and Smarty Jones posted the Arkansas Derby/Kentucky Derby as did Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Gormley stepped up to the plate in the Santa Anita Derby and he has shown he can handle and off track. He got an ideal trip in the SA Derby and the runners were staggering late. Gormely got the 9 furlongs on the SA Derby in 1:51.16, which is the slowest Santa Anita Derby since Sir William won the race in 1957. If he is going to win the Run for the Roses, he may need the race of his life.
Irap did something last time that is not simple and that is break the maiden in the Grade 2 Blue Grass. The time of the Blue Grass is a bit suspect. It was the slowest Blue Grass since Brilliant Speed won the race in 2011 in 1:50.92 and was also the third slowest since 2003. The connections have always had confidence in this runner as they tried Mastery, who would have been one of the contenders in this race. Trainer Doug O’Neill is looking for this third Derby win and has to be hoping for that déjà vu feeling after Nyquist won the Run for the Roses last year.
Irish War Cry has speed but doesn’t need the lead to win. He had everybody scratching their heads including the connections after the puzzling Fountain of Youth. The Wood last time was run on a speed-conducive track but this runner became the only Derby contender to have received two triple-digit Beyers this year. Since 2009, there have been six Wood Memorial winners that ran faster than this colt and the winner of the Wood has not been in the trifecta in the Run for the Roses since 2003.
Thunder Snow is Godolphin-owned superstar that punched his ticket to the Derby by beating 15 in the UAE Derby when wide in the process. He showed his class winning the Group 1 when closing out 2016 and his only poor effort came when he caught the soft grass in his first vs. winners in the 18-horse field. Obviously talented, he takes the wild card mantel but will also be trying to be the first Derby winner from Dubai. Who has this runner been facing? Well, the place horse 2/11 ran 15th in his next start and the Japanese-bred that ran second in the UAE Derby was losing for the first time in 5 starts and boosted his bankroll to over $900K. Trainer Bin Suroor Saeed has won top class races around the world including several G1s in this country. This interloper rates an upset glance.
Always Dreaming was wide in his first two starts sprinting but once he was given a chance to go a route of ground, the son of Bodemeister picked it up. He won his first vs. winners coaxing them along on a pedestrian pace and then stalked and drew off in the Florida Derby getting the final furlong in :12.53. He seems to be coming into his own right now but this runner is looking at plenty of other speed. He is the only runner in the field with two wins at nine furlongs and this colt comes to the race pretty much on time with no setbacks and that is huge. He was the first to work after the renovation break on 4/28 with the best of the morning drill and he galloped out strongly getting 7 furlongs in 1:25.60 and a mile in 1:40. There is also class in the pedigree as half-sister Hot Dixie Chick took a Grade 1. This Todd Pletcher student is the one to beat.
Gunnevera is a true rag to riches story as he has already repaid his $16,000 purchase price. He was far from disgraced in the Holy Bull and then came from left field winning the Fountain of Youth. He may have lost the Florida Derby at the draw when he landed post 10 and the race was just dominated by those with zip. The racer was professional in the maintenance work on the 28th for trainer Antonio Sano, who has his share of hardships over the years. With this runner’s style, he is at the mercy of how the race sets up and if he can find a lane to rally into in time and be clear in the process. The last runner to win the Kentucky Derby that was more than ten lengths back was Orb in 2013.
Practical Joke just shows up, puts on the work boots, punches the clock and runs hard. One thing to evaluate about this horse is his clever Champagne win last year. His 1:34 3/5 time was sensational considering only a handful broke the 1:35 barrier over the decades and two were Triple Crown winners. Potent trainer Chad Brown added small cup blinkers for the runner’s final prep on 4/28 and he seemed to be more aggressive in the later stages of the work. He could very well be around the wire once again.
J Boys Echo ran well in defeat in his only Churchill race but he regressed last time off the clever Gotham score. He got a contested pace to run into in the Gotham but was a victim of lack of pace in the Blue Grass. Trainer Dale Romans has shown he can handle classy horses as he won the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford, the Breeders’ Cup Turf with Little Mike and he trained Keen Ice, who upset Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Travers.
State of Honor should be the speed component of the Mark Casse pair. Casse is assisted by his son Norman and it took State of Honor time to figure it out. He earned the diploma after breaking a step slowly and was far from disgraced after the win sprinting on the synthetic. The concern for this runner is he has been handled by a number of today’s foes and he tends to lose ground at crunch time.
Tapwrit is the long-fused ticket of the Pletcher runners today. He was just not prepared to start in last and lost all chance and he may not have adored the Keeneland strip. Some horses like that surface, some detest it. Backers have to hope the leaders duel and then fade into the sunset.
Hence ran his eyeballs out in defeat in the only try on this surface and he has trained steadily for this race. The Sunland Derby may not have been that bad a prep. Irap exited the race to win the Blue Grass and Conquest Mo Money returned to run second in Classic Empire’s Ark Derby win. The third finisher at Sunland Hedge Fund was nipped next out in the Illinois Derby;
Fast and Accurate is another that is really stepping up in class after graduating for a $30,000 maiden claimer. One of his best assets is his positional speed but he was also losing ground going 9 furlongs last time and the Spiral was arguably the worst prep race of the spring. If he is to win the Run for the Roses, the price will be huge.
McCraken is a true horse for the course. He was injured in the Sam Davis and trainer Ian Wilkes gave him time to recoup. The runner lost some time since he has to bail on the Tampa Bay Derby because of an ankle sprain. The Blue Grass was a race he obviously needed and it was clearly a steppingstone to this extravaganza. Wilkes knows what to do with a good horse and he surely knows this is the big payday and not the Blue Grass. Wilkes was the exercise rider for the Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled and he trained Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned.
Battle of Midway was in tight the only time he was out of the exacta. He did the best he could do but just could not close the deal in the SA Derby and not sure that is his best style. He was sent along last time and may be better off tracking a target as he did in the March victory. According to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer’s East Coast assistant Christina Jelm, this runner has settled in nicely in his new surroundings.
Patch I owned by the fame Calumet Farm. This runner wanted no part of sprinting but he has shown a decent turn of late foot. He ran a Beyer point faster last time than Gormley did winning in California but his inexperience is something that must be addressed.
Untrapped could have issues. The good news is he graduated here but the bad news is that was his only win. He is speed challenged and he lost a bit of ground late in last. He did make the nice middle move in the Rebel to get within a head of the leader but then lost his momentum.
Lookin at Lee was in good form for about 2 weeks at Ellis Park last year. He completed the superfecta when adding the blinkers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but he can be his own worst enemy since he usually concedes 10 or 12 lengths to rivals early on.
Sonneteer’s lack of speed must be addressed. As a maiden he will be trying to join Buchanan, Sir Barton and Brokers Tip as those that won the Run for the Roses in their first victory.
Royal Mo must show he can win outside of California. He stalked to no avail when out in post 10 in the Rebel two races back but would expect his rider to be aggressive. Trainer John Shirreffs teamed with the Moss owners to win the Kentucky Derby with Giacomo in 2005.
Master Plan may not have cared for the muddy going in the Dubai finale. He also has to show he can win on dirt. The Meydan surface can be taxing on horses but at least this runner has a prep under his belt.
The truth of the matter is that you not only have to be good, you have to be lucky to win the Kentucky Derby. Always Dreaming is the kind of horse that can make his own luck and he is the selection.
Good luck, and have a Mint Julep for me.
