You like points? You’re going to get some points when the two high-flying offenses of the No. 15-ranked Oregon Ducks (9-3) take the field against the No. 11-ranked TCU Horned Frogs (10-2).
The lowest point total the Horned Frogs put up all year was in their first game, a 23-17 win over Minnesota way back in September. The very next week they dropped 70 on Steven F. Austin and haven’t stopped scoring since. TCU has only scored less than 40 points in four games and they’ve crossed 50 five times.
Oregon opened its season with a 61-point effort against Eastern Washing ton on the way to scoring over 60 three times. They’ve scored less than 38 only twice and lost both those games. As of this writing the over-under in this game is 79. It should be 100.
Bowl: Valero Alamo Bowl
Teams: Oregon Ducks vs TCU Horned Frogs
Date/Time: January 2, 2016 – 6:45 EST on ESPN
Location: Alamo Dome, San Antonio, TX
Vegas Line/Total: TCU -1 / O/U 78.5
Written by: Adam Greene
9 – 3 Record – 7 – 5 Vs Spread 11/27/15 Oregon State W 52-42 L -34.5 O 71.5 |
10 – 2 Record – 6 – 6 Vs Spread 11/27/15 Baylor W 28-21 OT W 2 U 74.5 |
January 12, 2015 – BCS Title Game – Oregon 20–42 Ohio State January 1, 2015 – Rose Bowl – Oregon 59 – 20 Florida State December 30, 2013 – Alamo Bowl – Oregon 30 – 7 Texas January 3, 2013 – Fiesta Bowl – Oregon 35 – 17 Kansas State January 2, 2012 – Rose Bowl – Oregon 45 – 38 Wisconsin |
January 4, 2010 – Fiesta Bowl – TCU 10 – 17 Boise State January 1, 2011 – Rose Bowl – TCU 21 – 19 Wisconsin December 21, 2011 – Poinsettia Bowl – TCU 31 – 24 LA Tech December 29, 2012 – Buffalo W.W Bowl – TCU 16 – 17 Michigan St December 31, 2014 – Peach Bowl – TCU 42 – 3 Ole Miss |
Oregon Outlook
The Ducks come into the Alamo Bowl after a shootout win over Oregon State where a combined 94 points were scored between the two teams. First-year starting quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. took the job in the summer and the team never looked back. Adams tossed 2,446 yards and 25 touchdowns with just six interceptions.
Adams was a decent runner, but didn’t contribute a lot as Royce Freeman rightly took the lion’s share of the carries out of the backfield, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, scoring 14 touchdowns and racking up 1,706 yards. At 5-foot-11 and 230 pounds, the sophomore is stuck in college another year but trust me, NFL scouts have noticed what he’s done with the Ducks this season.
Adams spread the ball around to five different receivers, counting Royce who hauled in 325 yards and two touchdowns. Bralon Addison was the team’s leading receiver. The 5-foot-10 speedster hauled in 58 passes for 775 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 13.4 yards per catch. Addison is just as dangerous in the punt return game, scoring an 81-yard touchdown this season.
On defense Deforest Buckner is a star who won’t have to wait long to hear his named called on draft day. A consensus Top 10 pick, Buckner recorded 76 tackles for the Ducks this season, 16 tackles for a loss and 9.5 sacks. Joe Walker leads a corps of good tacklers for Oregon, with 82 of his own to go with five tackles for a loss, two sacks and an interception. In all, seven Ducks have 50 or more tackles and three recorded more than 70.
TCU Outlook
For a guy that’s completed 64.9 percent of his passes, thrown 31 touchdowns, passed for 3.575 yards, rushed for 612 yards and scored nine TDs on the ground, you’d think he’d get a little more love on NFL draft boards but as of today he’s still projecting as a late-round pick or even an undrafted free agent. Maybe putting 60 on Oregon on Jan. 2 will change that opinion.
At running back Aaron Green projects better in the NFL, looking like he’ll be picked somewhere in the fourth or fifth rounds. Green has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns of his own to go with his 1,171 yards. Green’s size, 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds should work in his favor.
The Horned Frogs will be missing their best receiver in Josh Dcotson. Doctson played in just 10 games this season and still caught 79 passes for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns, almost double the production across the board as the TCU’s No. 2 receiver Kavontae Turpin. Turpin is a good five inches shorter than Doctson at least, so it’ll be up to 6-foot-1 senior Kolby Listenbee to take up the slack. Listenbee played in 10 games and caught 29 passes for 598 yards and five touchdowns, so this will be a good showcase for him since Doctson has already punched his draft ticket as a likely second rounder come April.
On defense Josh Carraway is the most dangerous passrusher. The defensive end has 8 sacks on the season and 10.5 tackles for a loss to go with his 43 tackles. Linebacker Travin Howard leads the team with 92 tackles with 6.5 for a loss and an interception.
It’s the holes in TCU’s defense that show up just about every other game. After holding West Virginia to 10 points on Oct. 29 they gave up 49 to Oklahoma State the very next week. A 17 point defensive effort came the week after, then they turned around and gave up 30 to Oklahoma.
Match-up Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
Anything but a basketball-type score will be a shocker in this one. Both teams can put up points and Oregon hasn’t stopped anyone all year. TCU on the other hand can only play defense when the gibbous moon crests the five trilithons of Stonehenge while Mercury is in retrograde, so really anything can happen.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and a prediction from Adam Greene, check out our audio preview of the Alamo Bowl using the audio file below…
