Paxton Lynch gets one last chance to make his case as college football’s top NFL quarterback prospect when he leads his Memphis Tigers (9-3) against another group of Tigers from Auburn (6-6).
For a team like Memphis used to lining up against the likes of USF and Cincinnati, you may think an SEC opponent could be a real challenge but it’s one the Tigers have already answered once, beating No. 13-ranked Ole Miss 37-24 back on Oct. 17.
This Auburn team comes in on its worst season in years. They’ve lost two of their last three and spent most of the year losing to SEC teams, including a 27-19 loss to that same Ole Miss team that Memphis beat the hell of out just two weeks before. So why are they favored?
Bowl: Birmingham Bowl
Teams: Auburn Tigers vs Memphis Tigers
Date/Time: December 30, 2015 – 12 PM EST on ESPN
Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
Vegas Line/Total: Auburn -2.5 / O/U 63
Written by: Adam Greene
6 – 6 Record – 3 – 9 Vs Spread 11/28/15 Alabama L 13-29 L 14.5 U 47.5 |
9 – 3 Record – 6 – 5 – 1 Vs Spread 11/28/15 SMU W 63-0 W -20 U 70 |
January 1, 2015 – Outback Bowl – Auburn 31 – 34 Wisconsin January 6, 2014 – BCS Title Game – Auburn 31 – 34 Florida St. December 31, 2011 – Chick-fil-A Bowl – Auburn 43 – 24 Virginia January 10, 2011 – BCS Title Game – Auburn 22 – 19 Oregon January 1, 2010 – Outback Bowl – Auburn 38 – 35 Northwestern |
December 22, 2014 – Miami Beach Bowl – Memphis – 55 – 48 BYU December 20, 2008 – St. Petersburg Bowl – Memphis – 14 – 41 S. Florida December 21, 2007 – New Orleans Bowl – Memphis 27 – 44 Florida Atlantic December 26, 2005 – Motor City Bowl – Memphis 38 – 31 Akron December 22, 2004 – GMAC Bowl – Memphis 35 – 52 Bowling Green |
Auburn Outlook
Auburn can do a lot on offense, but none of it particularly well. As an option-based offense you’d expect them to have a lot more success running the ball, but leading rusher Peyton Barber never crossed 1,000 yards in 12 games (he’s at 976 so he will after the bowl game). His 13 touchdowns are nice, but as an option he seems to be the only one with quarterback Jeremy Johnson only supplying 111 net yards and five touchdowns this season. That’s certainly not how option teams are supposed to work.
Johnson hasn’t done much better in the passing game, barely crossing 60 percent on his passes for just 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns to go with seven interceptions. Sean White has seen some action at QB this season, hitting 1,064 yards himself, but he’s just tossed one TD with two picks. If White is the future for Auburn it looks pretty bleak.
On defense, the star of the show is Cassanova McKinzy who’s posted up 74 tackles, 10 tackles for a loss and five sacks. I’m sure there are plenty of 3-4 NFL teams than have him on their draft boards in the second through fourth rounds. If Jonathan Ford at safety decides to forgo his senior year he’ll have no trouble finding a job at the next level too. Hell, he’s proven he can tackle, making way too many from the defensive backfield, leading the team with 113 including three tackles for a loss, one sack, two interceptions and two pass break-ups.
Memphis Outlook
Memphis’ only unknown coming into this game is how new head coach Mike Norvell will handle himself on the sidelines. Norvell replaced Justin Fuente after he decided to move up in the world and take over for Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech just like everyone on the entire planet knew he would. This is Norvell’s first-ever game as a head coach at any level so that has to count for something. Good thing for him that he has a pretty good quarterback leading the way.
Lynch is the consensus best QB in this draft and unless something insane happens (and it has in the past. I’m looking at you, Teddy Bridgewater) will likely be a Cleveland Brown nursing a 5-11 season this time next year. In the meantime, Lynch can go out a winner and a bowl champion, putting on a show to go with his nearly 70 percent completion rate, 28 touchdowns, 306 yards per game and just three interceptions.
Memphis isn’t coming into this game with anything close to an elite defensive unit. In their three losses the team gave up 45, 35 and 31 points. Even in wins they still lifted their skirts for more than 41 points three times, so unless Lynch can get hot early, this could be a closer game than people realize.
Match-up Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
Lynch deserves to be on the national stage and all he can do is lower his stock with a poor performance in this game. The biggest obstacle is Auburn’s under-achieving talent, especially on defense who just might decide to show up and play around noon-ish on Dec. 30.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and Adam Greene, check out our audio preview of the Birmingham Bowl using the audio file below…
