Tennessee goes bowling again in head coach Butch Jones’ third season at the con. The No. 23-ranked Vols (8-4) come in as the prohibitive favorite against No. 13 Northwestern (10-2) in the bowl that kicks off your wasted New Year’s Day.
Both teams had to pull seasons out of the fire to get to the Outback Bowl. For Tennessee, it was bouncing back from three bad choking losses to Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas. The Vols would lose a close game to Alabama, 19-14 before the season was over but if anything there was a definite change in the team in that game. Going toe-to-toe with the Crimson Tide woke up the Big Orange and they never lost again.
Northwestern had a midseason two-game slide starting in the worst possible way, a shutout 38-0 loss to Michigan. Iowa then held the Wildcats to just 10 points the following week while hanging 40 on them. Northwestern bounced back, holding on to beat Nebraska and even put together a second win over a ranked team, beating No. 25 Wisconsin in a defensive 13-7 game.
Bowl: Outback Bowl
Teams: Northwestern Wildcats vs Tennessee Volunteers
Date/Time: January 1, 2016 – 12 PM EST on ESPN2
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Vegas Line/Total: Vols -8 / O/U 48
Written by: Adam Greene
10 – 2 Record – 8 – 2 Vs Spread 11/28/15 vs Illinois W 24-14 W -2 U 42 |
8 – 4 Record – 7 – 5 Vs Spread 11/28/15 Vanderbilt W 53-28 W -18.5 O 41 |
January 1, 2013 – Gator Bowl – N. Western 34 – 20 Miss State December 31, 2011 – Meineke Bowl – N. Western 22 – 33 Texas A&M January 1, 2011 – TicketCity Bowl – N. Western 38 – 45 Texas Tech January 1, 2010 – Outback Bowl – N. Western 35 – 38 Auburn OT December 29, 2008 – Alamo Bowl – N. Western 23 – 30 Missouri OT |
January 2, 2015 – TaxSlayer Bowl – Tennessee 45 – 28 Iowa December 30, 2010 – Music City Bowl – Tennessee 27 – 30 N. Carolina 2OT December 31, 2009 – Chick-fil-A Bowl – Tennessee 14 – 37 Virginia Tech January 1, 2008 – Outback Bowl – Tenessee 21 – 17 Wisconsin January 1, 2007 – Outback Bowl – Tennessee 10 – 20 Penn State |
Northwestern Outlook
On offense, frankly, it’s not good. Though the Wildcats have put up some decent points in their late-season run, it’s been in spite of their quarterback Clayton Thorson, not because of him. Thorson hasn’t even crossed 1,500 yards passing and his seven touchdowns are negated by his seven picks. Thorson is a better running quarterback, but even then he gets sacked too much and takes too many losses. He’s averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and scored just four TDs with his feet.
Justin Jackson is their best offensive weapon, averaging 4.5 yards per carry as he piled up 1,344 yards. But Jackson was surprisingly ineffective in the red zone, scoring just four TDs. The Wildcats have no receiver anyone should be scared of. Senior Dan Vitale has good size at 6-foot-2 and 235 pounds, but caught just 33 passes this season for 355 yards and four TDs.
But Northwestern doesn’t really win games with its offense. It wins it with its defense. In all but two of their victories this season the Wildcats have held opponents to 19 points or less, including two shutouts. They gave up just six points in their win over then No. 21-ranked Stanford and just seven points to Wisconsin. Sophomore linebacker Anthony Walker has been a beast, recording 113 tackles with 19.5 for a loss, three sacks, one interception, four pass break-ups, two quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and three fumble recoveries. Walker is just one of three Northwestern defenders with double-digit tackles for a loss. Defensive lineman Dean Lowry has 13.5 and three sacks and Deonte Gibson has 12.5 tackles for a loss and nine sacks.
Tennessee Outlook
Tennessee has the players to be explosive, but has had trouble connecting on big plays for most of the season until the final stretch where quarterback Joshua Dobbs and wideout Josh Malone seemed to finally develop the chemistry they’ve been missing.
As future astronauts go, Dobbs has turned into a pretty good dual threat quarterback for Tennessee, scoring a combined 24 touchdowns and passing for 2,125 yards while adding 623 yards on the ground. Sophomore Jalen Hurd does most of the heavy lifting at running back, coming into the game with 1,158 yards and 11 TDs but the team’s secret weapon is Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a dual threat himself, rushing for 645 yards and six touchdowns and hauling in 31 passes for 272 yards and three scores. It’s been Kamara’s emergence as a weapon in the passing game that really made Tennessee’s offense difficult to stop late in the season.
Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin leads a defense that can make plenty of plays in the backfield too. Reeves-Mayben has 99 tackles this season, 13 for a loss and five sacks. Sophomore defensive end Derek Barnett has been a star since he first set foot on campus and has been just as productive in his second season with 61 tackles, 11..5 tackles for a loss, nine sacks and seven quarterback hurries.
If the game turns on special teams, Tennessee has the edge there with Evan Berry, little brother to Kansas City Chiefs All-Pro safety Eric Berry, who has scored three touchdowns and averaging a crazy 38.3 yards per return.
Matchup Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
Tennessee spent the latter half of the season as the team no one wanted to play. Now Northwestern gets the shot. While the Wildcats can rush the passer and get into the backfield, Dobbs has the moves and quickness to escape. The Vols like to move the pocket too and an overly-aggressive Northwestern blitz could see screens to Kamara go to the house.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and Adam Greene, check out our audio preview of the Outback Bowl using the audio file below…
