Two of the best non-power five teams over the last decade — Boise State Broncos and the Northern Illinois Huskies — will battle it out in this year’s Poinsettia Bowl. Since 2010, only Alabama, Florida State and Oregon have more victories. Both teams had high hopes to once again compete in a non-power five New Year’s Day bowl, but neither reached their potential. Uncharacteristically, Boise State served up three Mountain West losses this year, while Northern Illinois was hoping for a sixth consecutive 11-win season. Both teams faced their share of adversity at quarterback, which surely contributed to why they’re playing in San Diego on Wednesday instead of on New Year’s Day. With so many expectations coming from these two successful programs, but both of them falling short, do not be fooled. Boise State and Northern Illinois are loaded with talent. This Poinsettia Bowl Prediction should be a competitive match-up, pitting programs that are impressive on both sides of the ball.
Bowl: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Teams: Boise State Broncos vs Northern Ilinois Huskies
Date/Time: December 23, 2015 – 4:30 PM EST on ESPN
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Vegas Line/Total: Boise State -8 / O/U 56
Written by: Erik the Hun
8 – 4 Record – 6 – 6 Vs Spread Over – Under: 6 – 6Season Results11/27/15 @ San Jose State W 40-23 W -8 O 57 11/20/15 Air Force L 30-37 L -10.5 O 55 11/14/15 New Mexico L 24-31 L -31 U 57 10/31/15 @ UNLV W 55-27 W -21 O 53.5 10/24/15 Wyoming W 34-14 L -34 U 60 10/16/15 @ Utah State L 26-52 L -7.5 O 50.5 10/10/15 @ Colorado State W 41-10 W -14.5 U 60 10/03/15 Hawaii W 55-0 W -27.5 U 57 09/25/15 @ Virginia W 56-14 W 1 O 48.5 09/18/15 Idaho State W 52-0 W -27.5 U 59.5 09/12/15 @ Brigham Young L 24-35 L -2.5 O 56.5 09/04/15 Washington W 16-13 L -12 U 54 |
8 – 5 Record – 7 – 4 – 2 Vs Spread Over – Under: 6 – 7 Season Results12/04/15 vs Bowling Green L 14-34 L 14 U 69 11/24/15 Ohio L 21-26 L -11 U 58 11/18/15 Western Michigan W 27-19 W -3 U 59.5 11/11/15 @ Buffalo W 41-30 W -7 O 55.5 11/03/15 @ Toledo W 32-27 W 7 U 62 10/24/15 Eastern Michigan W 49-21 P -28 O 64.5 10/17/15 @ Miami (Ohio) W 45-12 W -17.5 O 54.5 10/10/15 Ball State W 59-41 W -10.5 O 54.5 10/03/15 @ Central Michigan L 19-29 L -1 U 51 09/26/15 @ Boston College L 14-17 P 3 U 44.5 09/19/15 @ Ohio State L 13-20 W 34 U 66 09/12/15 Murray State W 57-26 W -29.5 O 77 09/05/15 UNLV W 38-30 L -21.5 O 61.5 |
December 31, 2014 – Vizio Fiesta Bowl – Boise St 38 – 30 Arizona December 24, 2013- Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl – Boise St 23 – 38 Oregon State December 22, 2012 – Maaco Bowl – Boise St 28 – 26 Washington December 22, 2011 – Maaco Bowl – Boise St 56 – 24 Arizona State December 22, 2010 – Maaco Bowl – Boise St 26 – 3 Utah |
December 23, 2014 – Boca Raton Bowl – N. Illinois 52 – 23 Marshall December 26, 2013 – Poinsettia Bowl- N. Illinois 14 – 21 Utah State January 1, 2013 – Orange Bowl – N. Illinois 10 – 31 Florida State January 8, 2012 – GoDaddy.com Bowl- N. Illinois 38 – 20 Arkansas State December 18, 2010 – Humanitarian Bowl – N. Illinois 40 – 17 Fresno State |
Boise State Outlook:
Boise State’s season took an unexpected turn in week three against Idaho State, when Brett Rypien was called upon to handle the snaps. He was slated to red-shirt his first year, but due to injuries at the signal caller position, he was asked to fill the next-man-up mantra. After getting their bearings back, Boise ran off six of the next seven, but with two shocking home losses to Mountain West opponents, they needed the victory in their season finale to get them here.
As far as filling in for a position after an injury, there is no tougher spot than at signal caller. Freshman Brett Rypien, nephew of Super Bowl champion Mark Rypien, did so admirably. In 10 weeks of football, he accounted for 2973 yards through the air with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and completed 62 percent of his passes.
It was obvious to the coaching staff that with a greenhorn at quarterback, a higher emphasis needed to be placed on the running game. Jeremy McNichols was just the man for that role. The 5’9, 200-pound sophomore, racked up a very respectable 1244 yards on 221 carries, including a whopping 18 touchdowns, and caught 46 targets for another five, tying him with Derrick Henry for number one in the county in total touchdowns. He finished strong, reeling off seven straight 100-yard performances.
When McNichols wasn’t piling on the numbers, Brett Rypien was adding to his numbers via wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck. The 2014 Vizio Fiesta Bowl MVP hauled in 82 balls for 1334 (a new Boise State single season record), and eight scores. Sperbeck even managed to toss for a score again this year.
It was business as usual, for the most part, for the Broncos defense. Running the ball didn’t get any easier against this group this year. Boise State held opposing backs to 3.8 yards a carry, and 177.7 yards a game, good enough for 12th in the nation. Senior cornerback Donte Deayon (17 career INTs), collected another four this year, and Kamalei Correa pitched in a team leading 5.5 sacks, on a unit that recorded 28 takeaways.
Northern Illinois Outlook:
The Huskies were no stranger to some adversity throughout the 2015 campaign as well. After a rocky start, Northern Illinois strung together six wins in a row before their fortitude was tested. Quarterback Drew Hare started the first nine games before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. Frosh Ryan Graham took over until he was sidelined by a leg injury right before the MAC title game. Graham looks to be healthy enough to get the nod for the Boise State match-up.
The pressure will be the passing game to keep the dominating Broncos ground defense honest. Although Ryan Graham has only two starts (48-81 and 653 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs), he will be called upon to manage this game, limiting mistakes to a opportunistic Broncos defense.
If the Huskies hope to hang with Sperbeck and company, Joel Bouagnon will have to handle that responsibility. Bouagnon has had a productive campaign, compiling 1270 yards on the ground and a respectable 18 total touchdowns. Jordan Huff’s 7.9 yards a carry can create a little rest for the Husky workhorse.
Against one of the nations stouter run units, the wide receivers from Northern Illinois will have to make some plays. With 71 catches that were good for 1122 yards and 10 touchdowns, Kenny Golladay will be the go-to guy. His 15.8 yards a catch is indicative that he has the ability to make some big plays, keeping the Broncos from loading the line of scrimmage.
After allowing over 500 yards of offense against Bowling Green, the Huskies must find a way to shore up the defensive side of things. One bright spot is cornerback Shawun Lurry, who has accumulated nine interceptions this season, which is number one in the nation. The 25.5 points allowed a game this year will need to hold if the Huskies expect to come away with a win.
Match-up Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
Both squads are very similar in playing styles. Both like a balanced offense with a strong running game as their backbone. The edge obviously goes to Boise State’s ability to stop the run, so if the Huskies want this one to stay within reach, big plays on both sides of the ball will be at a premium. This match-up provides intrigue by seeing which team can come up with the key turnover and control the game with their rushing attack. The fans in San Diego should be treated to two exciting teams, that in any other year, would probably be playing in a more significant game.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and Erik the Hun, check out our audio preview of the Bowl using the audio file below…
