There was a time about two months ago when No. 17-ranked Baylor had designs on a national championship. It almost seems cute now to think about this plucky group of “Bad News” Bears (9-3) believing they had a shot at the playoff and the big time, but they did. For some reason, losing three of your last four games, including a horrible loss to Texas, knocks you out of the playoff picture and the major bowl picture. Now Baylor isn’t even favored over No. 10-ranked North Carolina (11-2). It’s quite a fall.
Bowl: Russell Athletic Bowl
Teams: North Carolina Tarheels vs Baylor Bears
Date/Time: December 29, 2015 – 5:30 PM EST on ESPN
Location: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Vegas line: Baylor +2.5 / O/U 69
Written by: Adam Greene
11 – 2 Record – 8 – 5 Vs Spread Over – Under: 7 – 6 11/28/15 @ North Carolina State W 45-34 W -3.5 O 65 11/21/15 @ Virginia Tech W 30-27 OT L -3.5 U 61 11/14/15 Miami W 59-21 W -12.5 O 68.5 11/07/15 Duke W 66-31 W -7 O 61 10/29/15 @ Pittsburgh W 26-19 W -1 U 59 10/24/15 Virginia W 26-13 L -16.5 U 58 10/17/15 Wake Forest W 50-14 W -17 O 53.5 10/03/15 @ Georgia Tech W 38-31 W 6.5 O 61.5 09/26/15 Delaware W 41-14 L -37.5 U 58 09/19/15 Illinois W 48-14 W -7 U 64 09/12/15 North Carolina A&T W 53-14 W -33.5 O 66 09/03/15 vs South Carolina L 13-17 L 1 U 62 |
9 – 3 Record – 5 – 6 Vs Spread Over – Under: 7 – 5 11/27/15 @ TCU L 21-28 OT L -2 U 74.5 11/21/15 @ Oklahoma State W 45-35 W -3 O 76 11/14/15 Oklahoma L 34-44 L -1.5 O 76 11/05/15 @ Kansas State W 31-24 L -17 U 67 10/24/15 Iowa State W 45-27 L -35.5 U 74.5 10/17/15 West Virginia W 62-38 W -20.5 O 75.5 10/10/15 @ Kansas W 66-7 W -46 U 76 10/03/15 vs Texas Tech W 63-35 W -17 O 88 09/26/15 Rice W 70-17 W -33 O 74 09/12/15 Lamar W 66-31 NL O 78 09/04/15 @ SMU W 56-21 L -36 O 71 |
December 26, 2014 – Quick Lane Bowl – Heels 21 – 40 Rutgers December 28, 2013 – Belk Bowl – Heels 39 – 17 Cincinnati December 26, 2011 – Independence Bowl – Heels 24 – 41 Missouri December 30, 2010 – Music City Bowl – Heels 30 – 27 Tennessee – 2OT December 26, 2009 – Meineke Car Care Bowl – Heels 17 – 19 Pittsburgh |
January 1, 2015 – Cotton Bowl – Baylor 41- 42 Michigan State January 1, 2014 – Fiesta Bowl – Baylor 42 – 52 C. Fla December 27, 2012 – Holiday Bowl – Baylor 49 – 19 UCLA December 29, 2011 – Alamo Bowl – Baylor 67 – 56 Washington December 29, 2010 – Texas Bowl – Baylor 14 – 38 Illinois |
North Carolina Outlook
North Carolina enters the game with a slight stumble of their own. Sure, that 11-2 final mark is impressive, but really their only win of any value was over Pitt. Of the four most important games on their schedule (South Carolina, Duke, NC State and Clemson) they lost half of them. The loss to Clemson, a season-defining 45-37 loss, lands them in what used to be called the Citrus Bowl before sponsorships and naming rights changed everything for the worse.
The Tarheels are favored for good reason. Quarterback Marquise Williams may not be on many draft boards, but his 2,829 passing yards, 990 rushing yards and 33 combined touchdowns make him a college football superstar. Williams doesn’t have to do it all by himself, as running back Elijah Hood, who will have another year to raise his draft prospects, racked up 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns. Williams spreads the ball around in the passing game, but the scariest (and most NFL-ready) target he has is Mack Hollins. Hollins caught only 28 passes this season, but led the team with 711 receiving yards, so if you do the math that’s 25.4 yards per catch. He also led them with eight touchdown catches so don’t be surprised to see this 6-foot-4, 210-pound junior receiver go ahead and punch his draft card and get picked in the third or fourth rounds.
On defense, Shakeel Rashad and Donnie Miles are tackling machines with each guy having over 100 stops on the season (Rashad = 110, Miles =106). Mikey Bart is the team’s primary pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, but Junior Gnonkonde and Justin Thomason can get after the quarterback too.
Baylor Outlook
For a team that put its last two quarterbacks in the NFL to varying degrees of success, you’d think they could settle on a quarterback. Art Biles is overly enamoured with his freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham and has seen fit to play him in nearly every game, regardless of the fact that junior Seth Russell has been excellent, tossing 29 touchdowns with just nine picks. And while both guys have put up good stats when they’re in the game, you can point to this QB issue as probably why Baylor is playing in a bowl named after your papaw’s favorite brand of Walmart sweatpants.
Junior wideout Corey Coleman looks like a early to mid-round draft pick thanks to his production. Coleman has caught 74 passes for 1,363 yard and 20 touchdowns and, with a decent 40 time, could end up as a second or third rounder.
On defense, the Bears have three guys that can rush the passer. Jamal Palmer and Andrew Billings both lead the team with 5.5 sacks apiece. Billings is a real talent on the inside and should hear his name called on the first day of the draft. Palmer will probably have to wait until day two, though his 53 tackles and 13.5 tackles for a loss show that he should have no trouble fitting into an NFL team’s rotation. Shawn Oakman may get taken soon after, thanks to his 14.5 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks. Frankly all three guys are legit NFL players and Baylor will have a tough time replacing them.
On the back end, Xavien Howard is a ball hawk with five picks and nine pass break-ups. At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds Howard is an NFL prototype big safety and looks like a second round pick too.
Match-up Analysis & Prediction
Analysis:
This bowl tops out what North Carolina could have probably hoped for. It’s doubtful anyone picked them to finish better than 11-2, though that South Carolina loss looks pretty bad right now. Baylor’s late-season swoon has made them the underdog in this game for good reason, but if they’d just settle on a quarterback and handed him the keys, they’d have been fine.
Prediction:
To get further analysis from Ej the Rainmaker and Adam Greene, check out our audio preview of the Russell Athletic Bowl using the audio file below…
