The first grand slam of the year is underway as the ribbon has been cut for the 2016 Australian Open. On the women’s side, all eyes will be on Serena Williams, who is coming off an epic year. She is the defending champion at the Aussie Open and, overall, collected wins in three of the four grand slams last season. When she’s focused and playing her best, there is no one in the world that can beat her. However, there will be the questions about focus, and age, and if anyone else can catch her on an off day.
On Tuesday in Melbourne, the bottom half of the draw will play its first-round women’s singles matches. The top seeds are really easy to pick – we’re assuming there won’t be any humongous upsets – so we’re going to avoid handicapping those affairs. If you’re looking for a little more value, consider these matchups with lower seeds and unseeded players.
Victoria Duval vs. Elina Svitolina
Odds: Svitolina -715
One of the first-round matches which you might be able to pick with a lot of confidence is this one. Svitolina made the quarterfinals of the French Open last season. She’s an up-and-coming talent who has demonstrated the ability to get hot and go on a little bit of a run. There’s a lot of talent in her arsenal, and that is the kind of thing which should make a player a round-one favorite to begin with. Then look at her opponent.
Vicky Duval is an inspiring player, someone who has overcome a lot of adversity in her life and career. She fought off cancer and moved to a state of remission and then to a cancer-free condition. That’s wonderful to see, but when a player has done something like that, winning matches feels like a bonus and not necessarily a necessity. Svitolina will probably take the court with more urgency, while Duval will be the kind of player who is just happy to be where she is. That’s a recipe for a decisive Svitolina victory.
Pick: Svitolina in straight sets
Andreea Mitu vs. Julia Goerges
Odds: Goerges -850
This is a matchup in which Goerges should have the definite upper hand. Goerges put together a very solid week in Auckland, New Zealand, making the final of that particular warm-up tournament before losing to Sloane Stephens in the final. Goerges can really lose belief in her abilities, but the flip side is that when things are going well and she trusts herself, she hits very sound and fluid groundstrokes. She times the ball well and can be a very dangerous opponent when she is in the zone. You are more likely to see Goerges play well coming off a good tournament. The fact that she is playing on Tuesday should give her even more of a break between tournaments, enabling her to be properly rested and to avoid a letdown after her good week in New Zealand. If you had to go one way in this match, Goerges – due to her history – is the better choice.
Pick: Goerges in straight sets
Bojana Jovanovski vs. Alize Cornet
Odds: Cornet -600
This match involves a power hitter, Jovanovski, against a defender. Typically on a surface like the hard surface in the Australian Open, you’d want to bet on the power player. However, this is a bit of a different setup. Cornet is the steadier of the two players and is the more accomplished of the two. She’s also coming off a win, beating Eugenie Bouchard in the Hobart International to win that warm-up tournament. Cornet is in a groove, and when a defensive player is in a groove, it’s going to be hard for the attacking offensive player such as Jovanovski to be consistent enough to win. Go with Cornet, but it might be an extended battle here. Cornet isn’t a good bet to win it all at the Australian Open but given her momentum, this figures to be a good spot to bet on her.
Pick: Cornet in three sets
