The Australian Open is moving along as we’re now into the second round of action. However, the first round wasn’t exactly a breeze for some ladies, including the No. 16 seed and former No. 1 seed, Caroline Wozniacki. While it’s hard to believe, a woman of her stature has now failed to get past the fourth round in 15 of the last 16 grand slams and has lost in the first round of a grand slam five times. She wasn’t the only seed to get an early exit as No. 32 Caroline Garcia, No. 25 Samatha Stosur, No. 22 Andrea Petkovic and No. 8 Venus Williams were all bounced. Stosur, in particular, was a disappointment as the Australian is a hometown hero but she’s never been past the fourth round in the Aussie Open. As for Williams, it’s pretty clear that her career is winding down. She’s now lost in the fourth round or sooner in 16 of the last 18 grand slams.
On Wednesday in Melbourne, the top half of the draw will play its second-round women’s singles matches. Let’s see where value is to be found, with an eye toward some particularly attractive opportunities for the women’s second round of the Australian Open.
Margarita Gasparyan vs. Kurumi Nara
Odds: Gasparyan -155
One of the second-round matches which might be very hard to call is this one. Gasparyan might seem to be the favorite on paper, because she just went through No. 17 seed Sara Errani in the first round, toughing out a three-set win and pulling away in the third. Gasparyan also came back in that match, having lost the first set decisively, 6-1. The 1-6, 7-5, 6-1 victory is a real confidence-builder. It’s the kind of thing an up-and-coming player can certainly use as she figures out life on the WTA Tour.
The counterbalance is this: The weather has been very hot in Melbourne at the start of the tournament. Nara went through her first-round match with a lot less trouble, rolling in straights over Oceane Dodin, 7-6, 6-2. It’s true that Dodin isn’t as good as Errani, but Nara’s ability to be physically fresh in the hot weather could really pay off for her here. Gasparyan might also have a tough time dealing with the challenge of playing one match after winning a huge one. It’s often a spot for a letdown. Go with Nara in a close, tough battle. She looks like one of the better underdog plays on the board for the second round of the 2016 Australian Open.
Pick: Nara in three sets
Xinyun Han vs. Yulia Putintseva
Odds: Putintseva -420
This is a matchup in which Putintseva should rate as a strong favorite. Putintseva lost the first set of her opening-round match against Caroline Wozniacki. She also lost that set by a 6-1 score, much as Gasparyan did against Errani. Yet, the Kazakhstani player rallied against Wozniacki, preventing the Danish star from making a deep run at this tournament. Putintseva hit the ball with purpose and authority against a player in Wozniacki who is very good at turning defense into offense. Putintseva showed the ability to be patient and yet strong on the court. She received a legitimately good test and should benefit from that challenge in the second round. Han came through a short match in which her opponent retired early in the second set. Han will be rested, but Putintseva is better by a large enough margin to carry the match.
Pick: Putintseva in straight sets
Carla Suarez-Navarro vs. Maria Sakkari
Odds: Suarez-Navarro -1100
This match pairs the veteran, Suarez-Navarro, versus Sakkari, a player who is relatively new to major tournament competition. Suarez-Navarro struggled late last season, while Sakkari will have Greek fans out in full force supporting her in Australia, which has a large Greek population. There are reasons to favor Sakkari in this match, but Suarez-Navarro looked very solid in her first-round match victory. She has been able to regroup from the offseason and regain balance. She should be able to use her experience to pull through, but it might take three sets.
Pick: Suarez-Navarro in three sets
