The North Carolina Tar Heels won the national championship last season, so for one thing, everyone will be out to get them this season. Second, national championship teams in college basketball generally lose a few important players. Such was the case for North Carolina to a considerable extent. It will be a huge challenge for head coach Roy Williams to build back this team to the point where it can become a viable contender for the Final Four.
Offseason Changes
The Tar Heels were hit hard by departures from their championship team. Kennedy Meeks ran his course in terms of eligibility, so he was always going to go. Junior Justin Jackson was very likely to go, but there was a sense of an outside chance that he might stay to make another run at a national title. However, that did not emerge. He went to the NBA. Joel Berry, also a junior, did make the decision to return to Carolina to defend his title. That was the one positive break the Tar Heels received in the offseason relative to the NBA Draft.
However, any of the benefits gained by retaining Berry were offset by a surprising exit. Tony Bradley, a raw freshman center who figured to replace Meeks and get extended minutes this season in the attempt to refine his game, bolted early for the NBA. Hardly anyone felt he was ready, but he wanted the financial security of going to the pros before an injury, which is always an understandable thought process for a late teenager. At any rate, this departure makes North Carolina less deep, and it makes the Tar Heels a lot smaller on the frontline. Williams always likes to play two big men on the court if he can, but now that might not be possible, at least not early in the season. The Tar Heels face a ton of challenges in terms of putting out the right starting five, and then coming up with the right combinations on the bench. Losing Isaiah Hicks to the NBA also compromises the Heels in terms of their frontcourt.
Will Succeed If…
They find frontcourt solutions. No Meeks, no Hicks, no Bradley – the first two departures were expected, but not the third. That’s a lot of bodies North Carolina has to deal with. Luke Maye can play in the frontcourt, but he is a stretch four more than a bruiser. A true center who can anchor the team as a post-up scorer and interior rebounder might not be part of this team’s realistic plans. North Carolina might get pounded on the glass and get eaten up by taller and more powerful big men with the skills to play over the top against a smaller man. UNC must find a way to cobble together enough interior defense and rebounding.
Won’t Succeed If…
Berry and Theo Pinson can’t be great. Berry was the heart and soul of the national champions. His leadership was exceptional and his heart uplifted other players. This year, it’s not enough to be a leader. Berry has to be an elite scorer, and Pinson – who is a very agile defender – has to create more offense to compensate for all the team’s losses in the paint. If Berry can’t be an amazing scorer, North Carolina won’t get where it wants to go.
Roster
Seventh Woods
Theo Pinson
Joel Berry II
Andrew Platek
Brandon Robinson
Jalek Felton
Shea Rush
Cameron Johnson
Garrison Brooks
Sterling Manley
Walker Miller
Kenny Williams
Aaron Rohlman
K.J. Smith
Luke Maye
Brandon Huffman
Schedule & Outlook
The Tar Heels will have a number of tests in their non-conference schedule, but they don’t ahve any ranked opponents. They’ll go to Stanford on November 20th, they’ll play Michigan at home on November 29th and they’ll go to Tennessee on December 17th. They’ll also have to play a neutral-site affair with Ohio State.
The frontcourt is such a problem, and this program has played in each of the last two national championship games. The laws of averages would work against North Carolina even if Tony Bradley was back for another season, but without him, it seems this team is destined for a comedown.
The 2018 March Madness futures are out. There has been plenty of news to keep up with in the offseason but keep an eye on the betting lines as they move around at Diamond Sportsbook! Get the latest college basketball betting lines right here.
