The TCU Horned Frogs are one of the least successful, least accomplished power conference programs in college basketball. The school has never been to a Final Four and has gone many years without even making a single appearance in the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs have made just two NCAA appearances since 1971, and none since 1998. This has been a career-slowing, momentum-halting job for a lot of coaches, so when Jamie Dixon came from Pittsburgh a year ago to revive TCU, many were skeptical of what he could achieve.
In one season, he has dramatically altered expectations.
TCU won its first NIT championship, routing Georgia Tech to cut down nets just a few days before the much bigger championship was decided between North Carolina and Gonzaga. TCU suffered painful losses during the regular season but learned from them in the NIT run. Moreover, the five NIT games gave this roster a lot of added experiences together against non-conference opponents. The table has been set for a much different era of TCU basketball.
Offseason Changes
The only real thing that is different for TCU this season is the set of expectations governing the program. All five starters return – Vladimir Brodziansky, Jaylen Fisher, J.D. Miller, Alex Robinson, and Kenrich Williams. Dixon gets to work with what is largely the same team and the same core rotation of players. The only point to emphasize is that whereas some teams are in a bad situation because they return everyone – if everyone isn’t that good – these are, in fact, good players. They got better as the season went along. They went through ups and downs but showed their cohesiveness together on the floor. They should work really well in concert with each other, something a lot of other teams will spend months trying to establish. TCU should be very good in the first months of the season due to this blend of familiar players. When Big 12 opponents start to figure them out, there might be a struggle, but TCU’s experience should be a big asset this season.
Will Succeed If…
The natural growth and evolution pattern occurs – as long as every starter makes solid, noticeable improvements relative to last season, it’s hard to see how this project will go wrong. Players know their roles and responsibilities. They saw exactly what they had to improve on last season when they barely failed to win a number of close games which could have pushed the team into the NCAA Tournament. The Big 12 has a couple of huge stars coming in – Billy Preston at Kansas, Trae Young at Oklahoma, and Mohamed Bamba at Texas. As long as TCU gets balanced production through its starting five and no one player fails to improve this season, everything should be good.
Won’t Succeed If…
The bench doesn’t provide a modest amount of help in important situations, led by Desmond Bane. Incoming freshmen and returning upperclassmen alike will be asked to fill gaps so that the starters won’t be exhausted heading into – and during – Big 12 Conference play. That is the main point of concern for Dixon and his coaching staff.
Roster
Jaylen Fisher
Desmond Bane
Shawn Olden
Vladimir Brodziansky
Kouat Noi
Lat Mayen
JD Miller
Dalton Dry
Kevin Samuel
RJ Nembhard
Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed
Alex Robinson
Clayton Crawford
Kenrich Williams
Austin Sottile
Outlook
TCU doesn’t really have to sweat too much through their non-conference schedule. Their toughest non-conference game looks like it might be someone like SMU or Nevada, but neither of those will be true road games. TCU will get tested in the Big 12.
The Horned Frogs don’t know what it is like to make the NCAA Tournament, but they are clearly on the right track. Another year for five core players to be together is very rare in college basketball, and while the Sweet 16 might be a little ambitious, one NCAA Tournament win and a seed in the range of No. 5-7 seem like very realistic, achievable goals for this team this upcoming season.
The 2018 March Madness futures are out. There has been plenty of news to keep up with in the offseason but keep an eye on the betting lines as they move around at Diamond Sportsbook! Get the latest college basketball betting lines right here.
