The Mountain West will duke it out with the Sun Belt Conference as the Utah State Aggies grapple with the New Mexico State Aggies in the 2017 Arizona Bowl. The bowl game is scheduled to unfold on Friday, December 29th at 5:30 p.m. EST. The intriguing match-up in the Land of the Sun can also be seen on ESPN for your early evening entertainment. Line-setters have placed the Utah State Aggies as a -4 point favorite and the game’s total at 63.
The Utah State Aggies arrive in Arizona for the Nova Home Arizona Bowl after finishing with a mediocre 6-6 record. Most recently, the Aggies fell to the Air Force Falcons 33-35 on the road. Even with the defeat, Utah State qualified for this game when they manhandled Hawaii 38-0 the prior week. Momentum isn’t on Utah State’s side as they struggled down the stretch winning only three of their last seven games.
The New Mexico State Aggies also head into the Arizona Bowl with an average record of 6-6. Unlike Utah State, the Aggies have gained some confidence after winning three of their last four matches. In fact, they became bowl eligible in their last regular season game. In that game, the Aggies toppled South Alabama 22-17 at home to claim their sixth victory of 2017. These programs met back in 2012 and Utah State won that game at home by a score of 41-7.
Utah State (6-6)
In the loss to Air Force, the Aggies put up 521 yards of total offense including 237 yards on the ground. Quarterback Jordan Love hit 17 of 30 passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns and no picks against the Falcons. Love has started the last six games for Utah State. during that stretch, he has completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,380 yards with six touchdowns and six picks on the year.
Senior running back Tony Lindsay Jr. was set to have a breakout year. Unfortunately, he didn’t make it out of the first quarter in the opening week of the season against the Badgers. In his place, tailback LaJuan Hunt was asked to handle the full-time duties. Hunt responded with just under 700 yards on the ground with a team-high 10 trips to the end zone. Jordan Love will also use his feet, scampering for 164 yards and three more scores.
The wide receiving corp didn’t post impressive numbers for the Aggies this season. Basically, three wideouts contributed with just over 100 catches for about 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ron’Quavion Tarver led the unit with 40 catches for 472 yards and seven trips to pay-dirt. Tight end Dax Raymond also brought in 36 passes for 414 yards and a score.
The key to stopping New Mexico State is stifling their passing attack. Fortunately, Utah State’s secondary has been lights-out this year. The back half sits 18th in the country, surrendering only 181 yards a contest. The Aggies front seven is where their problems lie. The linemen and linebackers have given up 219 yards on the ground a game. That gaudy number places them at 117th in the nation. Overall, the unit is giving up 27 points to their enemies (69th).
New Mexico State Aggies (6-6)
The Aggies brought back a ton of talent from last year and probably underachieved a bit. They have been led by their passing attack, which is one of the best in the nation. In their last game, they through the ball for just over 450 yards against the Jaguars. Quarterback Tyler Rogers has hit 62 percent of his passes for 3,825 yards on the year. He also has 26 touchdowns but he makes many mistakes, throwing 16 picks as well. If he turns the ball over a lot against Utah State, they will make him pay.
Because the Aggies choose to throw the ball so much, their running attack is basically an afterthought. Even so, they did manage to run the ball for a little over 100 yards a game. Larry Rose III and Jason Huntley combined for just over 1,200 yards rushing and 10 scores. Rose III led the team with 792 yards and nine touchdowns.
Like many great passers in college football, Quarterback Tyler Rogers tosses the ball to many different receivers. Three wideouts have recorded at least 40 catches and two others have more than 30. Jaleel Scott clearly is the number one option, catching 73 passes for 1,042 yards and eight touchdowns. Running back Larry Rose III is a great weapon out of the backfield, nabbing 49 balls for almost 500 yards and two more scores. OJ Clark holds the other side of the field down pretty well. The 5’7″ pass-catcher caught 44 passes for almost 500 yards and three trips to the back of the end zone.
The Aggies defense is about an average of a unit as there was in college football this season. They come in ranked 66th in total yards allowed (397 ypg), 77th against the pass (233 ypg) and 64th versus the run (165 ypg). Overall, New Mexico State gives up 30 points a game which is good for 85th in the country. They will need to step it up in the Arizona Bowl to help keep their potent offense on the field against Utah State.
Prediction
Las Vegas has the Utah State Aggies as a -4 point favorite and the over/under at 63. I think there will be some value in both of these figures. I realize that Utah State has good stats versus the pass, but that is because most clubs continually ran the ball against their weak front seven. Quarterback Tyler Rogers should find some success here and keep this game tight with the passing game. Therefore, I’m suggesting to take the New Mexico State Aggies to cover the four points here. I especially like it because it’s more than a field goal and I believe this contest will be tight throughout.
The over 63 also seems like a great play to me. Both defenses are nothing to write home to mom about and that smells like a lot of points to me. New Mexico State can flat out throw the football and Utah State shouldn’t find much resistance either. Play the New Mexico State Aggies to cover the four in a high-scoring game that finishes in the 70’s. @EriktheHun
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Trends
The New Mexico State Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
The Over is 22-8 in New Mexico State Aggies last 30 non-conference games.
The Utah State Aggies are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
The Under is 5-0 in Utah State Aggies last 5 bowl games.
