It’s a battle of the Wildcats when 20th-ranked Northwestern and Kentucky meet up to settle their differences in the 2017 Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium. The game is set to get underway on Friday, December 29th at 4:30 p.m. EST. It also can be watched on ESPN for your viewing pleasure. As of this write-up, Northwestern is a -7.5 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 51.
The Kentucky Wildcats head into the 2017 Music Bowl after being walloped by in-state rivals Louisville, 44-17. The disappointing defeat was the Wildcats second in a row to close out their regular season. In all, Kentucky finished with a 7-5 record and went 4-4 in SEC play. This will be the Wildcats fifth bowl appearance in Nashville where they have posted a 2-2 record.
The Northwestern Wildcats were the polar opposite of Kentucky. They closed out their season on fire, winning their last seven games in a row. In fact, they toppled their last two Big Ten opponents to the tune of 81-7. As a result, the Wildcats finished off their 2017 campaign with an overall record of 9-3. They also finished 7-2 in conference action. This will be Northwestern’s first-ever appearance in Nashville for the 2017 Music City Bowl.
Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)
Kentucky’s offense really struggled in the latter part of the season because they failed to remain balanced. Overall, the Wildcats enter the Music City Bowl ranked 99th in the country in passing offense. Dual-threat quarterback Stephen Johnson wasn’t a threat when standing in the pocket. In 2017, the signal-caller completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,048 yards. He also only recorded 10 touchdowns through the air and served up four interceptions.
The Wildcats prefer to move the ball down the field with their rushing attack. They finished 57th in the country, rushing for 170 yards a contest. Sophomore running back Benjamin Snell II was outstanding, scampering for just over 1,300 yards on 256 carries. He also notched a team-high 18 trips to the promised land. Quarterback Stephen Johnson pitched in with another 358 yards and three more scores.
Because Kentucky struggled to throw the ball well, only a few pass-catchers really made an impact. Wideout Garrett Johnson led the squad with 46 catches for 500 yards and two trips to pay-dirt. Tight end C.J. Conrad also caught 16 passes for almost 300 yards and a team-high four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he will not be suiting up for the Wildcats because he had a season-ending surgery to repair his damaged foot. His numbers may not seem that impressive but he was Stephen Johnson’s go-to guy in the red zone.
The Kentucky defense conceded a combined 86 points in their final two games against Georgia and Louisville. Now, they will face another big challenge in this Music City Bowl match-up. They have had success against the run but their pass defense has been an issue. Altogether, the back half has relented to 263 yards a game through the air which is good for 113th in the nation. Since their first three games of the year, the Wildcats have failed to stop their opponents from scoring at least 20 points a game.
(20) Northwestern Wildcats (9-3)
The Wildcats will be looking to win their second-straight bowl game to close out a successful season. Last year, they were victorious over the Pitt Panthers 31-24 in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. Northwestern sports a balanced offense that wasn’t spectacular but put up enough points to win games. Quarterback Clayton Thorson also completed 60 percent of his throws for 2,809 yards on the season. The problem with Thorson was he was inconsistent with the football. The Junior collected 15 touchdowns through the air but also threw 12 interceptions.
The Wildcat’s best offensive performer in 2017 was tailback Justin Jackson. The elusive back consistently helped the Wildcats move the chains on the ground. In all, Jackson took 255 handoffs for 1,154 yards and nine scores. No other runner really helped spell Jackson with any success. Teammate Jeremy Larkin finished second on the team with 391 yards and five more touchdowns.
The passing game was a little better than the running game for Northwestern as the season progressed. Clayton Thorson spread the ball around quite nicely, connecting with four different receivers on a consistent basis. Together, the foursome recorded just under 160 catches for almost 2,000 yards and 12 scores. Ben Skowronek led the way with 619 yards and was also tops on the squad with five touchdowns. Running back Justin Jackson finished second on the team with 43 catches for 266 yards.
There was little doubt in anybody’s mind that the Wildcats would not be in the post-season if not for the suffocating play of their defense. Northwestern sports one of the best front sevens in the country and is solid in the red zone. The front half ended up finishing 10th in the nation, allowing only 111 yards a game. The secondary was gashed repeatedly but should not be challenged much in the Music City Bowl. In all, Northwestern buckled down and kept their opponents off the scoreboard. The Wildcats rank 17th in the FBS, holding schools to only 19 points.
Prediction
After studying the 2017 Music City Bowl match-up, I see why oddsmakers have the Northwestern Wildcats as a -7.5 point favorite. Kentucky struggles to keep defenses honest because they simply can’t move the rock through the air. To make matters worse, their best red zone target is out with a season-ending injury. That’s bad news for a club that will be facing off with one of the country’s best front seven. I fully expect Northwestern to load the box and make Stephen Jackson beat them with his arm.
On the other hand, Northwestern can throw the ball. Also, Kentucky’s defense finished off the season giving up 40 or more points in their last three games. The half point scares me here a bit but with Northwestern’s defense, I could see value in taking the favorite here. Nevertheless, I believe the better play is to take the under on the Kentucky team total 21.5. The Wildcats failed to score more than 17 points in their last two games and won’t find much success against one of the FBS’s best defenses. Kentucky likes to run the ball and that plays right into Northwestern’s wheelhouse. @EriktheHun
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Trends
Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
The Under is 5-1 in Kentucky’s last 6 neutral site games.
Northwestern is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
The Under is 4-1 in Northwestern’s last 5 neutral site games.
