Martin Truex Jr. showed why he won the regular-season title with a big win at Chicagoland Speedway last week, and he is one of the favorites for this week’s race at New Hampshire. The ISM Connect 300 is the second race of the year at New Hampshire, and the first was won by Denny Hamlin back in July. This will be the second race of the playoffs, and the field needs to do something to keep Truex from running away with the Cup.
Details
Event: ISM Connect 300
Category: NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series
Date: Sunday, September 24th, 2:00 PM ET
Location: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, New Hampshire
Truex’s win was his fifth of the season as he led 77 laps along the way. Chase Elliott was an impressive second as he led 42 laps, followed by Kevin Harvick, who led 59 laps. Hamlin finished fourth and Kyle Larson finished fifth, while pole-sitter Kyle Busch led 85 laps, but he finished back in 15th place.
Past Five Winners
2016: Kevin Harvick
2015: Matt Kenseth
2014: Joey Logano
2013: Matt Kenseth
2012: Denny Hamlin
The Field
Taking a look at the field this week, Martin Truex Jr. enters as the favorite. That’s not overly surprising as we are talking about the driver that won last week. He now has five wins on the year, which is quite impressive. The challenge here is that he’s never won at New Hampshire, averaging a final position of 13.3. Kyle Busch is a two-time winner at this track but has a slightly worse average finish of 13.7. He comes in third in terms of the odds, slightly behind Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has picked up two wins on the year but could be a popular pick this week. He has three career wins at New Hampshire along with an average finish of 10.0. There are a slew of other drivers inside of 10/1, including Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth. This should be a very competitive race.
What To Know About The Track
New Hampshire opened in June 1990 and it is just over a mile long at 1.058 miles. It has variable banking in the corners between 2-7 degrees, and it is banked at one degree on the straightaway, so it doesn’t have that much banking at all. Flat tracks like this take a certain style of driving as drivers can’t depend on the banking to get speed going into the corners.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Kyle Larson over Kyle Busch
Busch is favored in this matchup at -150 over Larson, who comes in at +115, and Larson has only made seven Cup starts at New Hampshire, posting an average of 11.7. That is compared to Busch, who has made 25 Cup starts here and has an average of 13.7 with two wins, but they both came in the summer race in 2006 and 2015. In July, Larson finished second to Hamlin after starting 39th as he tore through the field, while Busch led 95 laps on the day, but he could only finish 12th.
Top-Five Pick: Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is as good as it gets at New Hampshire as he has a finishing average of 10.0 in 23 Cup starts here. He has won here three times, taking the summer race in 2007 and 2017, and he won the fall race in 2012. Hamlin finished a solid fourth last week at Chicagoland and few drivers have been as good as him over the last two months. In his last 13 Cup starts, Hamlin has 10 top-five finishes, including a pair of wins at New Hampshire and Darlington. To win the Cup, he’ll have to translate more of those finishes into wins, but if you’re looking for a top-five finish, especially here at New Hampshire, Hamlin is the driver to take at your DSI.
Odds To Win 2017 ISM Connect 300
Martin Truex Jr +350
Denny Hamlin +500
Kyle Busch +550
Kyle Larson +600
Brad Keselowski +850
Kevin Harvick +850
Matt Kenseth +850
Jimmie Johnson +2000
Chase Elliott +2250
Joey Logano +2250
Erik Jones +3750
Clint Bowyer +4400
Kurt Busch +4400
Jamie McMurray +4400
Ryan Blaney +4400
Daniel Suarez +8800
Dale Earnhardt Jr +10000
Kasey Kahne +10000
Ryan Newman +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +11500
Trevor Bayne +44000
AJ Allmendinger +44000
Aric Almirola +55000
Ty Dillon +55000
Paul Menard +55000
Danica Patrick +80000
David Ragan +100000
Chris Buescher +150000
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