A six-game winning streak at the end of last season was not enough for the New York Islanders to squeak into the postseason.
After firing head coach Jack Capuano, the team turned a corner under Doug Weight. Their 2017 was a return to competitive play. They simply could not overcome their horrid 2016.
Question marks remain on the horizon, and we’re not just talking about where they will be playing hockey in matter of years. They have made moves to increase scoring, but is it enough to propel them into the playoffs?
Notable Additions: Jordan Eberle (trade, Center)
Notable Subtractions: Travis Hamonic (trade, Defenseman), Ryan Strome (trade, Forward), Mikhail Grabovski (trade, Center), J.F. Berube (expansion draft, Goaltender)
Injuries: Shane Prince (ankle, 4-6 months), Alan Quine (upper-body, day-to-day)
Best-Case Scenario: Firstly and most importantly, John Tavares re-signs long term. He is an Islander for life. With one of the five best centers under wraps for the next six-to-eight years, ownership shifts its focus to its next problem- the arena.
The Islanders make it back to the postseason. They win their opening round matchup on the back of their captain. They make a splash for a center (Matt Duchene, anyone?), add a defenseman, develop their kids, and are built for the Stanley Cup in the next few years.
Garth Snow finds a trade partner for Jaroslav Halak. He cleans up in the draft with the first- and second-round picks acquired for Travis Hamonic. The defense has taken a hit due to Hamonic’s departure, but their young talent has them locked and loaded for the future.
Worst-Case Scenario: Jordan Eberle starts off this season like how Andrew Ladd did last season- unable to buy a goal. Josh Ho-Sang can’t keep himself out of trouble with the coaching staff. The defense is simply too slow to keep up with the speed of the Metro Division. Last year’s goaltender problems don’t go away.
The team bombs. It’s not poor roster construction, per se, but they simply are playing weaker than the sum of their parts. Competition is too great and they cannot maintain momentum.
Tavares-geddon is in full effect. With the superstar not patching up a contract extension, the entire fanbase becomes engrossed in the distraction. TSN can’t stop speculating who will be in on him if he hits the market.
That Boychuk contract looks worse and worse by the day.
With no concrete plans for a future arena and the team unable to take the next step, things begin to look bleak.
Alternatively: Garth Snow gives up every last young player he has not named Ho-Sang for Matt Duchene as a desperation overpay to compete. Never underestimate Snow in a negotiation.
What Will Probably Happen: The Islanders will be a better offensive team than people think. Jordan Eberle is the kind of top-line partner John Tavares needs, and can carry the second line if the wealth needs to be spread out a bit.
How many goals will @91Tavares tally this season? @NYIslanders pic.twitter.com/twzyGEq031
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) September 25, 2017
His presence, coupled with a better year from Andrew Ladd, will make the Islanders a high-scoring team. The Isles were already in the top 10 last year in scoring.
The problem is that last season, they gave up as many goals as they scored (239 goals for, 238 against). And now, they’ve traded away their best defenseman.
Nick Leddy posted a Corsi-for rating of 55.3% in his first season as an Islander. It has been steadily plummeting ever since, down to 47.8% last season. According to Steve Valiquette and Clear Sight Analytics, he was one of the worst players in the National Hockey League last season in adjusted plus/minus (high-danger chances for – high-danger chances against, 5v5).
Johnny Boychuk is tied for the highest cap hit on the team at present at $6 million for the next five years. That’s a lot of money for a guy who spent 16 games on the injured reserve last year, has never played a full NHL season due to his bruising style of play, and has seen his point production fall since getting to Brooklyn.
In his first season as an Islander he posted 35 points. He has registered 25 and 23 in the respective seasons since.
All this is to say, the Islanders need Boychuk and Leddy to put on their big-boy pants. Doug Weight reunited the two on the top pair when he took over the reins last season, and things turned around a bit. Leddy is 26, in the meat of his prime. Boychuk is 33.
The defense will need help. When measured against the four teams that made the playoffs out of the Metro last year, the Isles are the only ones with two defensemen in their top four older than 30 (Seidenberg, Boychuk). In fact, Washington is the only team with so much as one defenseman in the top two pairings older than 30 in Brooks Orpik. The Rangers no longer have anyone over 28. The Penguins’ oldest is Letang at 30.
The average age of a top-four defenseman in Brooklyn is 30.25. The next closest is Washington at 30 on the dot, after removing Kevin Shattenkirk from the top four, of course. No other competitive team in the Metro comes close.
If anything holds the Islanders back, it will be their slow blueline and inability to get a big save from their goaltender Thomas Greiss, who is also looking for a bounce-back year.
But let’s look at the positive. For one, any team with John Tavares has a chance to win. Plus, Josh Ho-Sang will be getting his first full season of NHL exposure. That’s exciting in of itself. He could be on a line with fellow prospect Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson. And expectations are high. This kid is the real deal.
Josh Ho-Sang growing up right before our eyes, comes to the defense of Barzal after he gets hit from behind #Isles pic.twitter.com/ATQUjsyOJZ
— Rob Taub (@RTaub_) October 1, 2017
Centering the second line will likely be Matt Barzal, also getting his first full season of NHL work. The 20-year-old had 10 goals and 69 assists in 41 games for the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL last season.
Also on the second line is Josh Bailey, who the Islanders protected with all their might in the expansion draft. Though Bailey was exposed to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Islanders surrendered Mikhail Grabovski, a first rounder, a second rounder, prospect Jake Bischoff and the draft rights to backup goaltender J.F. Berube to keep him around.
That’s a lot riding on Bailey’s performance.
Bailey had the best season of his professional career, playing in all 82 games and tallying 56 points. He was a positive possession player and had 11 multi-point games. He also found himself mired in drought to end the year of one goal in the final 23 games and five through his first 41.
This makes the second line especially intriguing in that neither Bailey nor Barzal are particularly known for their shooting, and Andrew Ladd got off to such a shaky start. Ladd will be asked to open up space for the two passers down low.
Projected finish: 5th in the Metro Division, miss the playoffs.
An Atlantic Division team like the Maple Leafs or the Senators will likely knock the Islanders out of the playoffs down the stretch and clinch the second Wild Card spot. There are too many unanswered questions about their blueline strength and goaltending.
Their weakest aspect last season was their inability to keep the puck out of the net and they have not addressed it one bit. Their biggest positive of the offseason was retaining the services of Calvin de Haan and even that is only for one year after an arbitration in which sides were way far apart.
But the Islanders will not be frustrating. Not to the rational fan. Their youth infusion is going to be incredibly fun to watch, and they will have plenty of comparable competition around the division to live up to. Josh Ho-Sang and Matt Barzal can go up against the likes of Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick in the talent department.
The biggest problems for this team are away from the rink. They are in the front office and the ownership box. The team itself will function fine and be competitive. They will be in the mix.
It’s up to the front office how the future looks.
