The Philadelphia Flyers quite literally hit the lottery in the offseason.
After missing the postseason by just seven points, the Flyers jumped from the 12th-worst record in the NHL to the second overall pick. The Hockey Gods blessed Philadelphia with Nolan Patrick, who tallied 205 points in 163 career games in the WHL for the Brandon Wheat Kings.
He joins an already loaded group of kids and prospects.
What does that mean for the Flyers here and now?
Notable Additions: Nolan Patrick (draft, 2nd overall, Center), Brian Elliott (FA, Goaltender), Jori Lehtera (trade, Center)
Notable Subtractions: Steve Mason (FA, Goaltender), Brayden Schenn (trade, Center), Nick Cousins (trade, Defenseman), Michael Del Zotto (FA, Defenseman), Chris VandeVelde (FA, Center), Roman Lyubimov (KHL, Center), Matt Read (waived, will join AHL, Winger), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (expansion draft, Winger)
Injuries: Shayne Gostisbehere (head, day-to-day), Anthony Stolarz (knee, “months”)
Best-Case Scenario: The kids get to play, and they play well. There’s a glut of players and only so many roster spots to go around, but Dave Hakstol and Ron Hextall (Hakstol and Hextall sounds like a cheeky law firm, doesn’t it?) come to their senses and give their younger players the proper playing time.
The team finds themselves contending for the Wild Card, and against all odds, they beat out the likes of the Islanders and the Atlantic Division bubble teams for the second spot. Anything can happen in the playoffs, so a berth is enough to inspire hope.
If this is how the team looks when its still in the developing stages, imagine how they will look when they are fully grown?
Oskar Lindblom gets the call to the NHL and impresses with his two-way play. Nolan Patrick throws his name in for Calder consideration centering Jordan Weal and Wayne Simmonds.
Rookie defensemen Richard Hagg, Travis Sanheim and Sam Morin collectively hoist Andrew MacDonald into the air, carry him through the annals of the Wells Fargo Center, give a solid heave, and fling him onto the cold, unforgiving sidewalk pavement. The three look at one another, give a solemn nod of a job well done, and lock the door on their way back inside.
Ivan Provorov proves he can be a top-pair defenseman. He will play a different pair from Shayne Gostisbehere as they both play the left side. Provorov eventually finds a partner not named MacDonald and his play improves. He’s only 20 years old, so there’s plenty of room for growth and a lot of slack on the leash.
Claude Giroux silences critics who say he’s entered the decline of his career. He proves last season was a result of lingering effects of off-season surgery.
Brian Elliott turns the page for both himself and the franchise. Philadelphia had the worst goaltending in the Eastern Conference last season. He himself got off to an abysmal start in Calgary that doomed his final numbers. Nevertheless, he settles in quickly and gives the team a reason to keep him around.
Worst-Case Scenario: The hockey braintrust in Philly interrupts their youth movement. Veterans like Andrew MacDonald and Dale Weise steal playing time away from more deserving youngsters. Why? Because young kids blah blah lot to learn blah blah good looks blah.
I wrote ~1000 words about the logic behind sending down Lindblom/Sanheim, but watching Weise/MacDonald/Manning play is nearly unbearable.
— Ryan Gilbert (@RGilbertSOP) October 1, 2017
This is the same group that confusingly extended Michal Neuvirth and Scott Laughton to unnecessarily pricey deals.
The team is caught in limbo, neither good enough to compete nor bad enough to tank for a lottery pick. No one looks exceptionally good other than Gostisbehere. Those who should be better lack consistency.
For some reason, these struggles are blamed not on a growing team with a few stars surrounded by a bunch of kids, but rather on their leader. Dave Hakstol is wrongly removed as head coach.
The speculative media wonders if moving Claude Giroux would be wise.
What Will Probably Happen: The Flyers will be fine. They are not going to take the league by storm. No one is expecting them to anyway. Perhaps they are hoping they will, but it’s unrealistic.
They’ll be in the mix for the second Wild Card. Then again, so will four or five other teams. So if they miss this year, it won’t be the end of the world. Tempering expectations is wise this year.
Now, does that mean accept mediocrity? No. It simply means don’t be disappointed that the timing of this year is really quite brutal. This is not a do-or-die year for the Flyers like it is for, say, the New York Rangers, or Washington Capitals, or Islanders, to a certain degree.
Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds are all on the right side of 30. Giroux, Voracek, Couturier and Gostisbehere are under contract for many more years. Simmonds and Brian Elliott are here for this and next year.
There is no great rush. At least, not yet.
This year is about fitting the puzzle pieces together. The Flyers are fortunate to have the weight of expectation off their shoulders. While the world turns their attention towards the teams that need to get it done right now, Philly can let their garden grow and build a powerhouse.
Giroux will never be what he was in 2012 again. Peter Laviollette once called him the best player in the world. No one will be rushing to make that claim. But he will get to 65 points again. He will be in the neighborhood of 20 goals. And that ought to quiet the world a bit.
imagine lacking the self-awareness to pin calling Giroux the best player in the world only on Peter Laviolette pic.twitter.com/AQ8yBvNUMH
— Mike Darnay (@MikeDarnay) April 15, 2017
At this point, the Flyers’ core needn’t be worried about. It’s the Travis Konecny’s, Nolan Patrick’s and Ivan Provorov’s that are more worth your attention.
And predicting their progress is dang near impossible.
Projected finish: 6th in the Metro, miss the playoffs.
Don’t get hung up on the number. The Flyers will still have about 85 points, which is nothing to be ashamed of. They will need one more year to put it all together. Come 2018, they will be setting off on what could be a five-year run of playoff hockey. Bottom line is this team is going to turn some heads and impress a lot of people.
