The Pittsburgh Penguins have won back-to-back Stanley Cups. The banner will rise to the rafters tomorrow night.
Scary thing is, they may still be the heavy favorites coming out of the east.
Though the Metropolitan Division has gotten faster and more skilled to try and beat the Pens at their own game, there is no substitute for the pure star power up front in Pittsburgh.
Nevertheless, there have been some personnel changes. Their speed and scoring depth has been gutted in the bottom six. There is some adjusting to do.
So the question remains: is a three-peat possible?
Notable Additions: Ryan Reaves (trade, Winger), Matt Hunwick (free agent, Defenseman), Antti Niemi (FA, Goaltender)
Notable Subtractions: Marc-Andre Fleury (expansion draft, Goaltender), Nick Bonino (FA, Center), Chris Kunitz (FA, Winger), Matt Cullen (FA, Center), Trevor Daley (FA, Defenseman), Ron Hainsey (FA, Defenseman), Oskar Sundqvist (trade, Winger)
Injuries: Patric Hornqvist (hand, day-to-day)
Best-Case Scenario: The dynasty rolls on. There are a few hiccups along the way, but the Penguins stay healthy enough to clinch the top seed in the Metro Division. Perhaps they even take home the President’s Trophy.
Their blueline makes it the entire season without falling to shambles, which it has done in the past. Kris Letang is healthy for the playoffs, as is Olli Maatta. Justin Schultz rewards the team for his extension. Matt Hunwick is more dependable than Ron Hainsey ever was in black-and-gold.
Matt Murray seizes the full-time starter’s job, but is able to stay fresh thanks to the savvy backup acquisition of Stanley Cup-winner Antti Niemi (yes, I know it feels like forever ago). Cut Niemi some slack, he had to play behind the Stars’ defense.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel have average years, which mean that they are at the top of the scoring charts. Crosby and Malkin once more compete for the Hart and Art Ross trophies.
The Pens draw an Atlantic Division foe in the opening round. Perhaps even reach the Conference Finals once more.
There’s no reason to set sights any lower than the Stanley Cup.
Worst-Case Scenario: Jim Rutherford acknowledged on Free Agency Frenzy Day that the team lost a lot, both in the talent and the leadership department. That matters in hockey. Especially when the talented players and leader players are the same people.
Marc-Andre Fleury had come to the end of his run in Pittsburgh, and everybody knew it. The departure of Chris Kunitz came as a bit of a surprise given the inexpensive nature of his contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning (one year, $2 million).
The losses at center were never truly addressed, and the bottom six suffers as a result. What was the fastest third line in hockey is now average, and scoring dips as a result.
Injuries hamper the team, as they seem to every year. Olli Maatta and Kris Letang are on and off the ice every other week. Patric Hornqvist’s various ailments have neutralized him. Carl Hagelin’s knee problems return and limit his mobility, his best weapon.
Fans cross the fingers that Malkin and Crosby are spared.
The team loses the division title and instead limps into tough opening draw against the third seed in the division. They struggle to keep pace with the Rangers and/or Blue Jackets and are bounced in the early rounds.
You know, even the worst-case scenarios really are not that frightening.
What Will Probably Happen: Little of column A, little of column B.
The Penguins are frontrunners for the division again but are going to have a target on their backs all season long. At least five other teams in the Metro Division have a realistic chance at the postseason this year, with the Devils and Hurricanes both improving as well.
The only teams that one could argue have gotten worse from last year to this year are the Penguins and the Washington Capitals.
The biggest loss of the season will be Nick Bonino. The center of the KBH line that won the Pens the Cup in 2015-16 has moved on to Nashville. Bonino had 18 goals and 19 assists last year. Losing Kessel from his line and the injury to Carl Hagelin hamstrung his production last postseason, but he still finished with 25 playoff points in 45 games for Pittsburgh in two Cup runs.
Not bad for a third line center.
Taking Bonino’s place on the third line will be 25-year-old Greg McKegg, a name so funny-sounding I had to Google it just to make sure it was really pronounced phonetically. McKegg is quick, and a former standout in the OHL. He has not been able to translate that foot speed into success at the professional level, with his best season being 19 goals and 28 assists in 65 games with the Toronto Marlies in 2013-14.
In six preseason games, McKegg has tallied a goal and an assist with 13 shots on goal. Not too shabby. If he’s ever gong to be a full-time NHL player, this is the opportunity to do it.
The biggest move the Penguins made in the offseason (in terms of cost, that is) was acquiring Ryan Reaves from the St. Louis Blues along with a second rounder in exchange for Oskar Sundqvist and a first rounder.
Let that sink in. The Blues acquired a first-round draft pick for a fourth-line player.
When given an 80-game workload, as he has twice in the last three years, Reaves has registered 13 and 12 points respectively. He has a career Corsi-for rating of 47.3% in 419 games.
His presence is a headscratcher for the Penguins, who have been adamant about speed over brute force on the fourth line. Their fourth unit now consists of Scott Wilson, Carter Rowney and Reaves when it once housed Matt Cullen, Carl Hagelin and a rotation of Bryan Rust and Tom Khunhackl.
It’s confusing to say the least. And considering other Metro teams have been shedding players like Reaves from their rosters rather than adding them, it seems counterintuitive. For reference, Scott Hartnell, Tanner Glass and Bobby Farnham have all either been cut or signed elsewhere.
Pittsburgh’s third and fourth lines are not nearly as scary anymore. Know what still is, though? Their top unit of Crosby, Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel.
Guentzel racked up 33 points in 40 NHL games last season, which was overshadowed by Crosby’s race for the Hart Trophy. His true coming-out party was in the postseason, where he netted 13 goals and added eight assists in 25 games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsEhKiI7pp0
Sheary had 53 points in 61 games last year. He went quiet in the playoffs but is continuing to build chemistry with the league’s best player.
Matt Murray started 47 games last season. Mike Sullivan will likely want to get that number into the 50s. Antti Niemi is used to the whole 1-1A arrangement, but given he is signed for dirt, chances are he’ll be more the prototypical backup playing 20 games a year.
Management felt comfortable letting Trevor Daley and Ron Hainsey walk provided Kris Letang and Olli Maatta have a clean bill of health. Letang has not played a full season in 7 years. The closest Maatta came was his rookie season four years ago, in which he played 78 games.
Odds are stacked against them. But as replacements go, Matt Hunwick is perfectly serviceable. The lack of depth is concerning, however.
Projected Finish: 1st in the Metro.
I concede this is a weaker team than last year. But the Washington Capitals’ stranglehold on the top divisional seed is over. The regular season is there for the taking.
Their biggest obstacle is health, which is beyond their control.
How long will Lady Luck smile upon Pittsburgh?
