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2017 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will enter the 2017 season with more question marks than answers after falling to 78 wins a year ago and missing out on a National League Wild Card spot by nine games. The Pirates spent the offseason restructuring their outfield and working with their young pitching prospects with the hope that they can solidify their starting rotation this season. Pittsburgh is clearly a team in transition and they will need a lot to go their way just to get back to the .500 mark in 2017. Things could get much worse for them too.

Key Additions: DP Daniel Hudson, INF Kevin Gosselin

Key Losses: OF Matt Joyce, SP Ryan Vogelsong, SP Jeff Locke, RP Neftali Feliz, INF Sean Rodriguez

Strengths

The Pirates definitely have some intriguing young pitching prospects with Jameson Tallon entering his second year while Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and Trevor Williams are all set to compete for the final two spots in their starting rotation. Pittsburgh needs at least two of those four pitchers to emerge and produce at a high level in order to complement Tallon, Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova and solidify their starting rotation. Meanwhile, the bullpen needs to bounce back after struggling in 2016. From 2013 to 2015, the Pirates relievers had the highest win probability added of any bullpen in the majors so last year’s disappointment really hurt the team’s overall outlook. Closer Tony Watson needs to be better while newcomer Daniel Hudson and Felipe Rivero will be asked to shut things down in front of him. The offense should be solid although not elite as long as Andrew McCutchen returns to his All-Star form. The former National League Most Valuable Player has been mentioned a lot in trade talks and Pittsburgh desperately needs him to bounce back after he regressed last season.

Weaknesses

The hitting depth isn’t elite with McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison asked to do a lot for this group. The Pirates have some talented prospects waiting in the wings, including 21-year-old outfield prospect Austin Meadows, so it will be interesting to see if any of them could crack the lineup this year and provide a boost on offense. The other issue is that you never know with the Pirates: are they going to cheap out and start a full-blown rebuild? In that scenario, they might try dumping a guy like McCutchen at the trade deadline if they feel like they’re not competitive this season. Other veterans could be sold off if that’s the case. That would lead to this team tanking down the stretch of the 2017 season and having a record much worse than we currently project.

The young pitchers on this roster are definitely talented but they lack experience, which could be an issue at times. The bullpen is in a similar situation as they have the potential to perform at a high level but need to prove they can do it consistently over the course of an entire season.

2017 Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart

Catcher Francisco Cervelli Chris Stewart
First Base Josh Bell John Jaso
Second Base Josh Harrison Adam Frazier
Third Base Jung Ho Kang David Freese
Shortstop Jordy Mercer Jung Ho Kang
Left Field Gregory Polanco Adam Frazier
Center Field Starling Marte Andrew McCutchen
Right Field Andrew McCutchen Adam Frazier
Starting Pitcher Gerrit Cole Jameson Taillon
Relief Pitcher Daniel Hudson Felipe Rivero
Closer Tony Watson

Projected Win Total: 85.5

World Series Odds: +4500

Outlook

The Pirates have enough offense to be a competitive team in 2017 but their overall outlook will depend a lot on the pitching staff with question marks concerning the starting rotation and the bullpen. Pittsburgh is definitely talented enough to contend for a Wild Card spot but the young pitchers will need to step up while the bullpen will need to bounce back following last year’s disappointment. It won’t help that the Pirates play in the toughest division in baseball as they once again have to deal with the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central.

Prediction: 80-82

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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