The San Diego Padres haven’t finished better than .500 since 2010. Now they head in to 2017 season with a very unlikely chance of stopping that trend. The Padres unloaded James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Matt Kemp, Fernando Rodney, Drew Pomeranz and Melvin Upton Jr. before last year’s trade deadline. The changes continued in the offseason with a number of notables leaving.
Expectations have been dramatically lowered as San Diego’s rebuild continues. The Padres will have a hard time improving on last year’s 68 wins. It won’t surprise anybody if they end up back in the National League basement. This should be one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
Key Additions: SP Trevor Cahill, SP Jhoulys Chacin, RP Tyrell Jenkins, RP Zach Lee
Key Losses: OF Jon Jay, C Derek Norris, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Tyson Ross, RP Carlos Villanueva, IF Alexei Amarista, OF Oswaldo Arcia, IF Adam Rosales
Strengths
Cahill is a decent addition to the starting rotation while Chacin could work out as well. San Diego’s pitching was a mess last year. However, even with the additions of Cahill and Chacin it’s hard to call the rotation a strength. Perhaps the most promising aspect of this roster is the young outfielders like Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe. Margot owns exceptional speed and defensive skills. Renfroe is the potential power hitter that could help turn this organization around over time.
Weaknesses
The Padres have ridded themselves of a ton of veteran money. Experience and talent level are definitely two majors weaknesses for this current roster. It’s impossible to completely blame management for blowing things up given how terrible this team performed last year. Everybody took their shots including executive chairman Ron Fowler, who blasted his team for “miserable failures”. San Diego said goodbye to Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Edwin Jackson and Tyson Ross. While they acquired a couple of veteran starters, it’s clear that they are moving on to the youngsters as part of their rebuild.
This roster has holes in its rotation, bullpen and in its lineup. The bullpen won’t feature any real shutdown options although there is some intriguing young talent there. Meanwhile, the lineup will likely feature Will Myers, Yangervis Solarte and perhaps even Margot and Renfroe. San Diego is in full rebuild mode right now and that means trial by fire for many of the club’s young players looking to take that next step this season. Expect them to dump whatever veteran parts they can sell off at the trade deadline. Their farm system is also depleted and needs a boost.
2017 San Diego Paders Depth Chart
| Catcher | Austin Hedges | Christian Bethancourt | Luis Torrens | ||
| First Base | Wil Myers | Yangervis Solarte | |||
| Second Base | Ryan Schimpf | Cory Spangenberg | Carlos Asuaje | ||
| Third Base | Yangervis Solarte | Ryan Schimpf | |||
| Shortstop | Luis Sardinas | Allen Cordoba | |||
| Left Field | Alex Dickerson | Travis Jankowski | |||
| Center Field | Travis Jankowski | Manuel Margot | |||
| Right Field | Hunter Renfroe | ||||
| Starting Pitcher | Clayton Richard | Jered Weaver | Jhoulys Chacin | Luis Perdomo | Christian Friedrich |
| Relief Pitcher | Carter Capps | Brad Hand | Ryan Buchter | Kevin Quackenbush | Buddy Baumann |
| Closer | Brandon Maurer |
Projected Win Total: 66
World Series Odds: +12500
Outlook
The Padres own the worst projected win total according to Fangraphs. The scary part is that they might not even hit that mark. It’s hard to make a case that San Diego is a better team than they were at this time last year. Case and point: take a look at their Opening Day starter: Jhoulys Chacin. Yes, that’s how bad the Padres rotation figures to be. Chacin will be starting opening day. This is a pitcher who had an ERA of 4.81 last year and a WHIP of 1.44. Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver are expected to follow him in the rotation but this goes to show you where the Padres are at these days.
After reaching 68 wins in 2016, there is a good chance they struggle to hit 60 in 2017. If there is a silver lining to the Padres failures, it’s that they will position themselves at the front of the line when it comes to selecting coveted outfield prospect Seth Beer from Clemson in 2018.
Prediction: 64-98
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