The Texas Tech Red Raiders face a crucial season. They overachieved in 2016, making the NCAA Tournament in a year when few expected them to, but then missed March Madness last season under a new head coach. Tubby Smith had this program pointed in the right direction, but then he sought the new job at Memphis when it came open. Chris Beard coveted the Texas Tech job, so he left UNLV after briefly accepting the Runnin’ Rebel job in order to move to Lubbock. He wanted to be there, and he wanted his family to be there. Beard, with some of Smith’s leftover players, couldn’t get Texas Tech over the hump last season. If he fails to do the same this season, many will question his ability to be the steward of the program.
Offseason Changes
Entering this season, Matthew Temple, Aaron Ross, and Anthony Livingston – three core rotational players – are gone. Ross is probably the biggest loss of the three, given his length and his ability to provide a measure of scoring punch. Beard is entering his second season, meaning that he is still immersed in a process of coaching Smith’s players.
Coaches at elite programs such as Kentucky or North Carolina are expected to succeed right away, but at most programs where coaching changes occur, the only time success is demanded in the first two seasons is when the roster is absolutely loaded. Texas Tech does have some very solid pieces returning, but it will be important to see if the losses of these three role players will help or hurt the overall product. If Beard is able to plug in replacements with a neutral or slightly positive effect, Texas Tech should be able to move in the right direction.
Will Succeed If…
The Justin Gray, Niem Stevenson, and Keenan Evans offer balanced production without any one man feeling he needs to be the sole answer on offense – blown leads last year and close losses in important games spoke to the lack of diversity on this team in terms of its resources and its ability to find different ways to break down opposing defenses. Evans was usually the man who took the big shots at crunch time, so he will gain a majority of the focus and attention of opposing defenses. However, he needs Gray and Stevenson to be there for him when he is double-teamed or denied the ball on inbound passes late in games. Texas Tech needs to cultivate Gray and Stevenson as dependable second and third options for this team to reach its potential.
Won’t Succeed If…
The frontcourt doesn’t emerge to help the three-guard group of Gray, Stevenson and Evans. While the guard-and-wing trio must help each other, the rest of the rotation has to provide rugged interior defense, timely rebounding, and intelligent screening which enable the guards to flourish without thinking they have to do everything on the court. The frontcourt doesn’t need to be huge in terms of statistical output, but it has to work and integrate well with the guards. Otherwise, Gray, Stevenson and Evans will wear out in February.
Roster
Tommy Hamilton IV
Brandone Francis
Zhaire Smith
Josh Webster
Hyron Edwards
Justin Gray
Niem Stevenson
Zach Smith
Keenan Evans
Alex Vilarino
Malik Ondigo
Jarrett Culver
Avery Benson
Davide Moretti
Andrew Sorrells
Norense Odiase
Parker Hicks
Outlook
The Red Raiders are going to have a couple of early tests in the season that will give us an idea of just how good they’ll be. A neutral-site affair on Boston College will be a challenge (on November 18th) as will a tricky neutral-site contest with Seton Hall.
The Red Raiders were very close as it was to making the NCAA Tournament last season. The veterans are back, especially Evans – as long as they make real-world improvements and don’t let too many close games slip through their fingers (that has been a problem for Tech in recent seasons), they will return to March Madness this season.
The 2018 March Madness futures are out. There has been plenty of news to keep up with in the offseason but keep an eye on the betting lines as they move around at Diamond Sportsbook! Get the latest college basketball betting lines right here.
