Chicago Cubs Season Win Total Odds 94.5 Wins (+100 over / -130 under)
Winning 103 games and ending a 108-year drought is a big deal, but it should come as no surprise that the World Series hangover was real for the Chicago Cubs.
It seems a bit unfair that the 2017 season started on the road for the Cubs, and with a pedestrian 43-45 record at the All-Star Break, they reeled off 49 wins in 74 games after the Midsummer Classic to seize control of the division and march into the postseason.
Of course, that was still enough to win the NL Central and head into the playoffs. But a repeat was not in the cards, as the Cubs fell in five to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
When all was said and done, the Cubs won the Central by six over the pesky Milwaukee Brewers and, incredibly enough, won consecutive division titles for just the second time since the 1900s.
A third straight division title would tie a franchise record set from 1906-08.
The Cubs are certainly in good position to do that, as the NL Central’s top team. They were 92-70 last season, with a 93-69 Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a 92-70 BaseRuns record.
The tale of two halves does make it a little difficult to figure out this team. How much of the first half was truly a World Series hangover and how much of it was a regression to the mean?
Like most World Series seasons, it takes a perfect storm. The Cubs were one of the best defensive teams of all-time in 2016. That regressed in 2017.
Players that had career years in 2016 took a bit of a step back. There is also something to be said about the long season. Playing high-stress games for an extra month means one month less of training and recovery.
The Cleveland Indians were also a slow starter in 2017 and then the best team in baseball in the second half.
Without a World Series hangover, the Cubs should be in better position to start well and set the pace in the division. On the other hand, the division is improved, with a much better version of the St. Louis Cardinals and a better version of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are still going to struggle, but the Cubs have more competition at the top.
With high expectations leading to a high season win total line, the North Siders have a lot of work ahead of them.
Pick & Prediction Under 94.5 Wins -130 over
This is a pretty easy pick for us. The magical run that the Cubs had in 2016 was exactly that. They get to fly a flag forever and a lot of players had career years and the Cubs were one of the best defensive teams we’ve ever seen.
|When that regressed back to a normal level last season, we saw a team that won 92 games. While the Cubs are still the front-runner for the NL Central in our opinion, this is not going to be a run away, and the Cubs should have some challengers this year which means fewer wins to go around.
This is still one of the deepest teams in baseball, but there are a few chinks in the armor with the rotation, and the bullpen doesn’t inspire as much confidence as past bullpens have.
We just don’t see the Cubs winning 95+-games. It could happen, and the Cubs certainly have the talent, but with a lot more competition , the Cubs will have to play .587 baseball for six months to get 95 wins. Our pick Under 94.5 games.
