With the NCAA Division 1 baseball tournament fast approaching, Saint Louis and Ole Miss are two of the many teams who have a chance to do some damage in the tournament. However, after the two sides go head-to-head this upcoming Friday, only one of them will still be in the bracket. That said, here is what you need to know about their regionals matchup this upcoming Friday.
Saint Louis competes in the Atlantic 10 conference this season and is 38-18 on the season. In contrast, Ole Miss is an SEC team with a similar record. They are 46-15 in 2018. Here is the current line from Betdsi Sportsbook on their matchup.
The Odds for Ole Miss
Saint Louis +100
Ole Miss -140
Spread -3.5
Over/Under 11
Essentially, Ole Miss is a heavy favorite in this one which makes sense. After all, they play in a highly competitive division widely considered the top college baseball conference in the country. In contrast, Saint Louis’ wins came over schools like Massachusetts, Jacksonville, Dayton, George Mason, and others. Those are not exactly baseball powerhouses.
Offensively, there is no doubt that Ole Miss is superior. Their .303 batting average and .869 OPS seem to indicate this. It’s also worth noting that outside of SEC play, they are 28-3 this season. In contrast, Saint Louis, has a .285 batting average as a team and an .835 OPS. Saint Louis, who is 5-6 in neutral location games this season, is not anything special when they are playing top-tier competition. Outside of Atlantic 10 action, they are 19-14 this season. What this really means is that Saint Louis is highly-regarded because they play in a weaker conference and Ole Miss is overlooked because they play in an elite one.
From a pure stats standpoint, Saint Louis has the better pitching staff (3.32 ERA versus a 3.71 ERA), but how many projected first round picks play in the Atlantic 10? Also, how many Atlantic 10 teams have won the tournament in the past? The answer to both is zero. However, the SEC has won the College World Series on 11 occasions. That’s not bad.
Most likely, Ole Miss will win the game on Friday, but there is one more question. That question is: will they be able to cover the spread? Consider this: they beat LSU 9-1 in their last game of the regular season, 9-1. Two days prior to that, they topped Auburn, 7-0, so they are capable of putting together big wins.
Saint Louis has also shown they are capable of losing by a fair amount when they play good teams. They started their season with non-league play and went 1-7 in it. During that span, they had losses to Old Dominion, Toledo and Notre Dame by four runs or more.
Most likely, Ole Miss should be able to cover the spread, so they would be the recommended pick here. It certainly helps that they will be at home in the matchup and play in a superior division. In this point of the tournament, that itself should be the difference-maker.
Ole Miss might not be a team poised to win the entire tournament, but they should feel good going into Friday.
