The Auburn Tigers will not face an easy road on the path to a regular season in which they can surpass their over-under win total of nine. Last season didn’t end the way the Tigers wanted it to, but the Tigers still registered some significant accomplishments in 2017 which will be hard to repeat in 2018.
Auburn 2018 regular season win total
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Tigers had a season which was simultaneously great and disappointing. That’s hard to do, but Auburn managed to frustrate and exhilarate its fans with a very unusual journey. This is a team which blew a 20-0 lead in a loss at LSU, but then regrouped later in the season to beat both Georgia and Alabama. In most years, a team which beats Georgia and Alabama will make the College Football Playoff. However, Auburn’s great misfortune was that it had to play Georgia a second time in the SEC Championship Game. Auburn lost, enabling Georgia to get into the College Football Playoff. When Alabama controversially received an at-large slot over Ohio State to make the field, the SEC became the first conference to get two teams in the playoff… and they were the two teams Auburn defeated. Georgia and Alabama then played in the national title game. Auburn beat both of them… but not at the right time.
What Will Change This Year
The Tigers will be worse than they were last year because, very simply, the Georgia and Alabama games will both be on the road instead of at home. If Auburn is able to merely win one of those two games, that would be a good accomplishment, but it is not likely. Georgia and Alabama figure to be loaded this season, meaning that Auburn is likely to suffer losses in both games. If the Tigers fall to Pac-12 favorite Washington in the season opener, it will be extremely difficult to build on last year’s success.
Auburn has a reputation for being better when expectations are lower, and being worse when expectations are higher. Last year, most people thought Alabama would win the SEC West, but Auburn did instead. This year, Auburn is more of a target in the SEC with returning quarterback Jarrett Stidham in the fold. It will be harder for the Tigers to sneak up on their opponents. They also lose star kicker Daniel Carlson and lead running back Kerryon Johnson, who both made lots of key plays last season. This team is fragile and not that deep at a few key positions, and that could be enough to make a very good team slightly worse in 2018.
Outlook & Prediction
The Washington opener might be the most important game of the season, since it will immediately tell Auburn if it can compete for a College Football Playoff berth. So much rides on that game, and Washington figures to be a very hard team to beat. That is a coin-flip game, but Auburn does have the advantage of playing that game in Atlanta, where Tiger fans will outnumber Husky fans. If Auburn can win that game, a 10-2 season is realistic. Georgia and Alabama will be rough, but Auburn gets LSU and Texas A&M at home in the SEC. The big concern: Can Auburn be consistent enough to win all of its non-Alabama, non-Georgia games? Ultimately, this looks like a nine-win team, but if forced to pick an over or under, this team is probably closer to eight wins than to 10, so the under is the pick.
