It is the most dependable thing in college football today: Alabama made the College Football Playoff last season. The Crimson Tide are the only team which has made the College Football Playoff in all four years of its existence. Clemson has made the playoff three times, but Nick Saban stands alone in terms of fielding great teams each season. Will Alabama be able to keep things rolling this season and eclipse its regular season win total of 10.5? People expect Saban to come through… but are expectations reasonable?
Alabama 2018 regular season win total
Over 10.5 (-130)
Under 10.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
Alabama won the national title on an overtime touchdown pass against Georgia in the national championship game in Atlanta, so some people will think that Alabama had the best team in the country during the regular season… but that’s not the case. Alabama ran into injuries in its back seven early in the season and was still shorthanded heading into the late-November rivalry game at Auburn, which it lost decisively. Alabama failed to win the SEC West Division championship for the first time since 2013, when Auburn similarly defeated the Tide late in the year. However, unlike 2013, Auburn did not win the SEC Championship Game.
The Tigers had to play Georgia a second time after beating the Bulldogs in mid-November. Auburn was beaten up, and Georgia was the faster, stronger, fresher team. The Bulldogs won the SEC, and then Alabama was selected as the fourth team in the four-member playoff field, which snubbed Big Ten champion Ohio State. Alabama made the most of that piece of good fortune. Given a month to rest and heal, the Tide mashed Clemson in the Sugar Bowl and then beat Georgia to win it all.
What Will Change This Year
The Crimson Tide will be better than last season if they can avoid injuries, which last year’s team was unable to do. The team is well positioned to improve despite the loss of defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was a first-round NFL Draft selection a week ago, because of the change at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is simply not a great passer. He was able to do well because of Alabama’s strength on defense and on the offensive line, but against great teams such as Auburn and Georgia, he was not able to move the ball as well as Saban needed him to.
The Tide lost to Auburn, and when Alabama was struggling against Georgia and trailing deep into the second half, Saban made the kind of decision great coaches make: He was willing to put in his backup freshman quarterback because he felt the team needed a spark on offense. In came Tua Tagovailoa, who immediately enhanced Alabama’s downfield passing game. The winning play in the national title game was a beautiful 42-yard sideline strike against a coverage bust. Tagovailoa never started a game but was the right choice at the right time against Georgia. If he continues to play well this season, Alabama will do what it needs to.
Outlook & Prediction
Auburn was a road game last season but is a home game this year. LSU was a home game last year and will be a road game this year. On balance, Auburn is tougher than LSU, so Alabama comes off well in that exchange of home and road dates. The Louisville home opener should be easy, with Louisville no longer having Heisman Trophy quarterback Lamar Jackson. Alabama avoids Georgia in the 12-game schedule but might have to play the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, a 13th regular season game. That game could become a loss, but if Alabama gets to 11-1 before Game 13, it will still cover the number… and given the weak nature of the schedule, the Tide should reach that goal. Take the over.
