The Michigan State Spartans did a tremendous job of rebounding and regrouping in 2017 – not only from a disastrous 3-9 season in 2016, but from early-season performances which continued to cast doubt over this team’s ability to perform at the highest level. Can this team exceed the regular season win total set forth for it?
Michigan State 2018 regular season win total
Over 8.5
Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Spartans got blown out at home by Notre Dame in September. Yet, they created an inverse relationship to the Notre Dame game for the second straight season. In 2016, a win at Notre Dame suggested that Michigan State would once again be very good. Instead, the Spartans crashed and burned, falling to 3-9. Last year’s team traveled the exact opposite path, getting trampled by Notre Dame but then rallying to finish 9-3 in the regular season and then crush Washington State in the Holiday Bowl to finish 10-3. The Spartans won a close, tough, defense-dominated game in a rainstorm at Michigan to turn around their season. They won another game delayed by lightning to beat Penn State and solidify the gains they made against Michigan. The MSU defense returned to being one of the best units in the country, and the offense did just enough in fourth quarters to create a steady stream of victories. Michigan State has consistently won close games; last year’s team did that. The formula Mark Dantonio has used during his tenure once again clicked into place.
What Will Change This Year
The amazing part about this upcoming season is how little will change. Michigan State will return virtually its entire team, which is almost unheard of in major college football. Of the 22 starters on both offense (11) and defense (11), 21 will return this season. Only offensive lineman Brian Allen won’t… but he was considered the team’s best interior lineman, and offensive line is the least proven position group on this team, so it’s not as though Michigan State is guaranteed to be a great team.
What is good is that running back L.J. Scott – who was on the 2015 team which made the College Football Playoff – will be back for a fourth (senior) season. What is less indicative of a huge 2018 season is the quarterback position. Brian Lewerke showed flashes of promise in 2017, but he still needs to take the next step in his evolutionary process for this team to reach the height of its potential.
One cannot dismiss the reality that Michigan State played bad-weather games in which opponents made bad mistakes. What if those bad-weather situations don’t emerge this year and opponents commit fewer turnovers? Michigan State will have to improve just to maintain the 9-3 standard it set last season. If MSU does not improve, the record could get worse in 2018.
Outlook & Prediction
The Spartans play Michigan at home this year after traveling to Ann Arbor last year. Ohio State is a home game instead of a road game. However, Penn State is a road game instead of a home game.
What works in favor of Michigan State this year? The three teams from the Big Ten West which MSU plays (Big Ten East teams play six games in their own division and three against the West) are Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska. MSU avoids Wisconsin and Iowa. That should enable MSU to finish 10-2. Ohio State and Penn State are still likely to beat the Spartans, but they should be able to handle everyone else. Take the over.
