The Minnesota Golden Gophers have P.J. Fleck, one of the youngest head coaches in college football. Enthusiasm runs high, but enthusiasm means little without quality players. Such is the uphill battle Minnesota faces in trying to top its regular season win total this year.
Minnesota 2018 regular season win total
Over 6
Under 6
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Golden Gophers were playing their first season under a new coach, and predictably, they went through rocky times. Their offense struggled with a new system and a new philosophy under inherited players. New recruits weren’t able to make much of a difference. The program had to deal with the fallout from suspensions which occurred under the previous head coaching staff. Minnesota lost three games by one score in Big Ten play last year… but it also lost the last two games of the year by a combined score of 70-0. Fourth place will be a good finish for Minnesota in the Big Ten West this year, based on what happened last year. The gap between the Gophers and the top of the division is large.
What Will Change This Year
The Gophers have six quarterbacks on their extended roster, but none have thrown a pass for the team in live action. Tanner Morgan might be the guy coach P.J. Fleck trusts more than anyone else, but it remains an open question as to which player will lead the team in the season opener. Fleck is very much in a building process at Minnesota, so whereas some coaches enter a second season at a program expecting to win big, Fleck can’t have those same expectations. He needs more time to get this program to where he wants it to go. Not having a quarterback he can trust makes it hard for Minnesota to have a high ceiling as a program this season. There is too much uncertainty surrounding the Gophers to feel especially confident that this will be their breakthrough year.
Outlook & Prediction
The Golden Gophers went 3-0 in non-conference games in 2017 and beat Illinois and Nebraska in the Big Ten, finishing 2-7 in nine conference games. This year, Fresno State figures to be a very tough non-conference opponent, meaning that Minnesota probably can’t expect to go 3-0 out of conference. 2-1 is much more likely. This means Minnesota has to win five games in the Big Ten in order to have a good chance of exceeding the win total. The Golden Gophers will need at least four Big Ten wins to cover the number. The good news for Minnesota is that as a Big Ten West team, its three crossover games with the Big Ten East are generally favorable. Ohio State will be a loss, but Indiana and Maryland are great chances for wins. If Minnesota can win those two games against East teams, the Gophers should be able to beat Illinois to get to five wins. Then come a series of West Division games which will decide the issue: Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa.
If Minnesota wins two of those three, it will cover the number. If it goes 1-2, it probably won’t. Given the instability at quarterback, the verdict here is that Minnesota will come up short. Take the under.
