The Purdue Boilermakers were very good during the Drew Brees years at the end of the 20th century, but then they fell into a long and deep patch of misery. They had become a punching bag for the rest of the Big Ten. Last year, however, their identity began to change, and everyone in college football immediately knew why this turnaround had occurred. Now, though, Purdue has to deal with the fact that other teams know the Boilermakers can’t be taken for granted. Purdue will get everyone’s best shot. The team will have to be better just to maintain what it did last season.
Purdue 2018 regular season win total
Over 5
Under 5
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Boilermakers took on a new identity. They still stumbled and lost a few games they should have won, especially a 14-12 loss at Rutgers which was the team’s worst performance of the season by far. They also lost a home game to Nebraska in which they had numerous chances to gain a firm upper hand. Nevertheless, in spite of those failures, Purdue still won six regular season games and got to a bowl game. The Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm and new defensive coordinator Nick Holt, were a reborn team which was able to bounce back from setbacks. Purdue made a late-season push by winning at Iowa – the same Iowa team which beat Ohio State by 31 points earlier in the season – and winning at home against Indiana to get to six wins. Purdue then won the Foster Farms Bowl against Arizona to finish 7-6, a great year which surpassed everyone’s expectations for the program. Now comes the challenge of trying to replicate that achievement.
What Will Change This Year
What will change more than anything is that Big Ten teams will know that Purdue has to be taken seriously again. The Boilermakers might have snuck up on opponents last season, but they won’t be able to do the same in 2018. The good news is that David Blough and Elijah Sindelar will both remain on the roster, vying for the starting quarterback spot.
The bad news? Blough and Sindelar will both be vying for the starting quarterback spot. These two were both inconsistent last year. The defense usually carried the offense more than the other way around. The offense certainly had its moments, especially against Ohio, Missouri and Arizona in the bowl game, but the defense was the much stronger unit on this team, and the offense was contained. The difference for Purdue is that since the offense was merely average instead of terrible, the defense’s work was good enough to win games. Merely avoiding awful performances helped this team a lot. It didn’t raise its ceiling so much as it raised its floor.
Outlook & Prediction
The Boilermakers, in 2017, went on the road to play the three toughest teams in the Big Ten West – Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa. They hosted the three weaker teams in their division – Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana. This year, that schedule will flip-flop. Purdue gets all the tougher teams at home and the more manageable teams on the road. Really strong teams don’t mind when they play tough teams at home, but Purdue – being a .500 team in the regular season last year – probably has a better chance of going .500 when the easier teams are at home. Those are more likely wins. This 2018 schedule is exactly what a team like Purdue does not want. The tough teams will come to Purdue and win anyway, and Purdue might lose one of the road games against an “easier” team. Purdue has to play crossover division games against Big Ten East teams. This year, Ohio State and Michigan State join rival Indiana on Purdue’s schedule. That’s a rough schedule. Purdue also plays Missouri and Boston College at home.
Realistically, Purdue has to beat three of these four teams – Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana – to have a good chance at going over the win total of five. Purdue should beat Eastern Michigan and split the Missouri-Boston College pair of games. If it can win three of the four Big Ten games listed above, it can probably find a sixth win somewhere. Take the over.
