It’s a fact of life that there is a lot of turnover in the coaching ranks at the end of every college football season. In the best of these scenarios, the coach simply underperforms, and the university determines he is no longer the person for the job. Recently though, it seems like more and more coaches are getting fired or relieved of their positions for non-football reasons that test both legal and criminal boundaries.
Earlier this week, BetDSI became the first sportsbook to release CFB betting odds on the first coach of a major conference team to be relieved of duty this season. It’s almost a guarantee that we will see at least one head coach fired mid-season as schools no longer wait until the end of the year to show coaches the door anymore, so the key is determining which coach is most likely to get canned.
College Football Prop Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
First head coach fired during 2018 regular season
(Power 5 Conferences and Notre Dame only, Maryland excluded)
David Beaty (Kansas) +400
Lovie Smith (Illinois) +500
Ed Orgeron (LSU) +600
Brian Kelly (ND) +750
Chris Ash (Rutgers) +800
Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech) +1000
Mike MacIntyre (Colorado) +1200
Barry Odom (Missouri) +1500
Mike Leach (Washington State) +2000
Dino Babers (Syracuse) +2000
Steve Addazio (Boston College) +2500
Larry Fedora (North Carolina) +2500
Mark Stoops (Kentucky) +3000
Herm Edwards (Arizona State) +4000
Bobby Petrino (Louisville) +7500
Gus Malzahn (Auburn) +10000
Field (Any Other Head Coach) +150
Related: College Football Betting Guide
David Beaty is the favorite to be the first head coach fired and it’s hard to think of another coach that should be favored over him. Beaty has the toughest job in the Big 12, and Kansas has arguably been the worst Power Five school this decade. He has been unable to turn things around in the slightest, with a mark of 3-33 over the last three seasons and just one win over an FBS team to his credit. It’s almost a certainty he will be fired at some point in 2018, but he might not be a mid-season firing since he has already been around for this long. Losses against Nicholls State, Central Michigan, and Rutgers at the beginning of the season might change that though.
The decision to hire Lovie Smith has not gone well for Illinois. The Fighting Illini were taking a major chance when they decided to bring in Smith, especially when you consider that he had not coached college football in more than two decades. Through two seasons, Illinois is 5-19 and the school is just 2-14 in Big Ten play. Illinois has a real chance to lose at home against Western Illinois in Week 2, and if the Illini lose that game the pressure will be ratcheted up on Smith.
He is a fun guy that neutral observers love to pull for but having Ed Orgeron as your head coach can be frustrating. Orgeron is incredibly colorful and gives great quotes to the media, but he is 31-33 in his career and there are already rumblings that he could be fired in the middle of the season if he doesn’t get the results that LSU fans have been craving. LSU has arguably the most difficult schedule in the country. The Tigers will face Miami, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama by early November. There’s a good chance they post a losing record in those six games, and that would likely spell the end for Coach O.
If you’re looking for more of a dark horse to be fired early, take a long look at Mike Leach. Leach has a history of rankling boosters and administrators the wrong way, and his biggest supporter at Washington State is now gone. Athletic Director Bill Moos left to take the job at Nebraska in October 2017, and he was replaced by Patrick Chun. Chun may want to bring in his own guy, and this is going to be a major rebuilding year for the Cougars. Those two things may conspire against Leach.
