Our FCS plays were remarkable during the regular season. We posted just one losing record over the course of 12 weeks, and our picks went a combined 22-7-1 ATS over the course of the season. That should be good enough for a Hall of Fame plaque, but we’ll settle for continuing to grow our bankroll.
The FCS Playoffs start this week, and we are out to keep the good times rolling. Let’s get to the picks.
Week 1 Record: 3-1 ATS
Week 2 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 3 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 4 Record: 1-1-1 ATS
Week 5 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 6 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 7 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 8 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 9 Record: 2-0 ATS
Week 10 Record: 2-0 ATS
Week 11 Record: 0-2 ATS
Week 12 Record: 2-0 ATS
FCS Playoffs First Round Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Towson -17.5 vs. Duquesne, O/U 66
The Northeast Conference is the worst conference in the FCS. Duquesne got to the playoffs by beating out everyone else for the conference title, but we won’t soon forget what happened to Central Connecticut State at this point last year. They ran into a decent New Hampshire team in the first round and were unable to score a single point against the Wildcats.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Towson won’t have any problems scoring with Tom Flacco calling the shots at quarterback. The dual-threat quarterback has been released after dropping down a level, and the Tigers have been one of the best offenses in the country because of him. Duquesne will score some points, but it won’t be nearly enough against this offense.
Pick: Towson -17.5
Wofford -2.5 vs. Elon, O/U 47
Elon is known for playing sound defense and many will be calling for the Phoenix to pull off a slight upset here. Wofford is able to surprise opposing teams during the regular season with the triple option, but this is the time of year that the offense won’t sneak up on anybody.
We think the under is the better bet though. Both teams have slow, methodical offenses, and neither side will be in a hurry to move the ball. These are two good defenses, and it should be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 47
Southeast Missouri State +7.5 vs. Stony Brook, O/U 54.5
Southeast Missouri State made it to the playoffs as a result of beating Jacksonville State. However, that was a game where everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Gamecocks, and the Redhawks were unable to stop most of their conference foes.
That’s good news for Stony Brook. The Seawolves have been erratic on offense, and they want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Joe Carbone looks to have regressed in his fourth season with the program, and his dreadful performance last game nearly knocked the Seawolves out of the postseason. They received a lifeline, and now we expect Carbone to only throw when necessary.
Pick: Under 54.5
James Madison -19.5 vs. Delaware, O/U 47.5
The initial line in this game was ridiculous. The Dukes were originally favored by more than 20 points according to the CFB betting odds, and that has since come down quite a bit. Although James Madison is much more dangerous than its ranking indicates, this is a team that has failed to win by the big margins it did in previous years.
Delaware should be getting more respect than this, but people are down on the Blue Hens after losing to Stony Brook and Villanova to end the season. The defense should keep this close enough.
Pick: Delaware +19.5
Montana State -9 vs. Incarnate Word, O/U 60.5
We loved seeing the Bobcats as a single-digit favorite in this one. Incarnate Word has no business being in the postseason, and Montana State will make sure the Cardinals are one and done in the playoffs. It is supposed to snow throughout the day on Saturday in Bozeman, and that will only help Montana State in a blowout win over Incarnate Word.
Pick: Montana State -9
Nicholls State -14.5 vs. San Diego, O/U 62.5
Sportsbooks are wise to the Colonels in this one. Although Nicholls State has had an up and down season, this is a team that can run the ball and we found out two weeks ago that you can run the ball well on San Diego’s defense. The Toreros allowed 789 yards on the ground to Davidson, and there should be a lot of room for the Colonels to run.
Pick: Nicholls State -14.5
Northern Iowa -27.5 vs. Lamar, O/U 52.5
No team played a tougher schedule than Northern Iowa in the FCS this season, and that’s why the Panthers were the only 6-5 team given a bid into the postseason. They are big and stout up front, so many are calling for them to shut down Lamar’s run-first offense that relies on deception.
This is too many points though. We are skeptical about the Southland too, but nearly four touchdowns is just too much to pass up.
Pick: Lamar +27.5
Jacksonville State -21.5 vs. East Tennessee State, O/U 52.5
ETSU was one of the luckiest teams over the course of the year, but we expected the FCS betting line here to be around two touchdowns and not three. Like we’ve seen elsewhere, this is simply too many points to turn down.
Pick: East Tennessee State +21.5
