Last week was only our second poor week of the season. The FCS playoffs betting lines have gotten predictably tighter from what we saw in the regular season and the sportsbooks got the better of us. We won just two of our seven picks, although our record should have been 3-4 given what happened in the Eastern Washington-Nicholls State game. Nicholls State led 14-3 until late in the first half, and the box score was remarkably even, but special teams mistakes and a pick-six cost the Colonels dearly.
Week 1 Record: 3-1 ATS
Week 2 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 3 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 4 Record: 1-1-1 ATS
Week 5 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 6 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 7 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 8 Record: 1-1 ATS
Week 9 Record: 2-0 ATS
Week 10 Record: 2-0 ATS
Week 11 Record: 0-2 ATS
Week 12 Record: 2-0 ATS
First Round Record: 7-1 ATS
Second Round Record: 2-5 ATS
FCS Playoffs Quarterfinals Betting Odds
Weber State -6.5 vs. Maine, O/U 48.5
Unlike the other three Quarterfinals, this one will be played on Friday night. The temperature is expected to be in the high-20s at kickoff, but both teams are used to playing in the cold.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Maine and Weber State are mirror images of each other in many ways. Both teams have won a number of close games, both teams rely on their defense, and both teams want to keep the ball on the ground. Both schools are also looking to make it to the FCS Semifinals for the first time in program history, but only one will advance.
We don’t like any particular side in this one, but the under is a good play given what we’ve seen from both teams. We expected this number to come out at 45 or lower and we’ll gladly take the extra points.
Pick: Under 48.5
North Dakota State -25.5, O/U 42.5
Speaking of defensive battles, this game will feature two of the top six defenses in the country in terms of total defense. Colgate finished with the best defense in the nation this season, finishing first in most major statistical categories. They rode their defense to a win last week, forcing five turnovers from James Madison quarterback Ben DiNucci and did just enough on offense to beat the favored Dukes.
There’s no doubt that North Dakota State is the best team in the country though. The Bison are -300 favorites to repeat as national champions per the FCS futures odds, and they should have no problem beating Colgate. As good as the Raiders have been, they put up those numbers in the relatively weak Patriot League, and the JMU team they upset last week was in turmoil following the news that Mike Houston was leaving to take an FBS coaching job.
This is a lot of points, but NDSU is more talented than Colgate across the board here.
Pick: North Dakota State -25.5
Kennesaw State +7 vs. South Dakota State O/U 56
Maybe Kennesaw State isn’t as strong of a team as we thought they were. We came into last week thinking they would blow the doors off of Wofford, but they had a hard time moving the ball on the Terriers and ended up holding on for a 13-10 win. Chandler Burks isn’t a great passer, so he needs the ground game to work in order to be effective, but instead the Owls’ offense stalled out.
The Jackrabbits have arguably the best dual-threat quarterback in the country in Taryn Christion. Although Christion struggled with his accuracy in South Dakota State’s blowout win against Duquesne, he averaged over 12 yards per carry and the Jackrabbits picked up over 300 yards on the ground. They won’t have as much success against a good Kennesaw State front seven, but they will be able to cover the touchdown spread.
Pick: South Dakota State -7
Eastern Washington -8.5 vs. UC Davis, O/U 71
We saw these two teams play just four weeks ago, and the Eagles trounced the Aggies in Cheney. Eastern Washington racked up 674 total yards of offense in a 59-20 victory, while UC Davis threw three interceptions and couldn’t get much going through the air.
After such a dominant victory, it was interesting to see the FCS betting odds open with EWU as just a 9.5-point favorite and even more intriguing to see the line drop to 8.5.
While we are tempted to lay the points with Eastern Washington at home, the better bet is the under. The Eagles’ run defense gave up some big runs to UC Davis the last time these teams met, and they were gashed by Nicholls State last week too. The Aggies will likely keep the ball on the ground a lot and play some ball control.
Pick: Under 71
