Before the season started, the general consensus was that the James Madison Dukes were the team with the best chance to knock off the North Dakota State Bison. North Dakota State has won six of the last seven FCS national championships, with James Madison breaking that streak in 2016. The Dukes went into the Fargodome and knocked off North Dakota State before beating Youngstown State for the title, and they nearly beat the Bison in the title game last year. Even though they have struggled this year, some believed the Dukes should have received a national seed, yet instead they had to play in the first round. That hasn’t stopped them from being favorites per the FCS Playoffs betting odds though.
FCS Second Round Playoff Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
James Madison -7.5
Colgate +7.5
Over/Under 36.5
Mike Houston expressed his disappointment with the Selection Committee when the playoff field was announced. Houston believed that the Dukes should have been ranked in the top eight and given a first-round bye by the committee, and he wasted little time expressing that opinion. He highlighted James Madison’s injuries and brutal schedule as reasons why they should have been a top eight seed and the oddsmakers agree.
The Dukes had odds of +1200 to win the 2018 FCS Championship before the start of the playoffs, and those were tied for the fifth-lowest odds on the board, along with South Dakota State and UC Davis. James Madison had the lowest odds of any team playing in the first round of the playoffs, and only Jacksonville State was close in that regard.
Colgate is looking to stop the Dukes from getting back to the FCS Championship Game for the third straight year. The Raiders were on the bubble with regards to whether or not they would get a seed as the Patriot League has not been a historic power. Last year, conference champion Lehigh was smashed by Stony Brook in the first round of the postseason, and that’s been sort of the status quo for the conference in the playoffs.
However, the Raiders went undefeated against FCS teams this season thanks to the best defense in the FCS. Colgate allowed 17 points in the season opener, and from that point forward the team allowed just 12 points in their remaining games against FCS opponents. The Raiders didn’t play the toughest competition though, and the Dukes are going to be the best team, outside of Army, they have faced this year.
James Madison was not really tested against Delaware last week. The Dukes outgained the Blue Hens by over 100 yards, and their defense allowed just six points on the day. That allowed their offense to slowly move the ball and wear down the Blue Hens, and they did just that in a two-touchdown win.
The Dukes are deserved favorites in this one too. James Madison is starting to get healthy at the right time, and Colgate has not faced an FCS team quite this talented. Our money is likely to be on the Dukes in this one, but you’ll have to wait until later in the week for an official pick.
