This year’s Heisman Trophy race is looking like the closest since 2009. That year, Mark Ingram barely edged out Toby Gerhart for college football’s top individual honor, winning a scant one percent more of the vote. Another Alabama player is one of the favorites this year, but Tua Tagovailoa’s Heisman Trophy odds have dramatically shifted in the aftermath of Championship Week. He was once considered a heavy favorite to win the award, yet now Kyler Murray is perceived to be leading the pack heading into Saturday’s announcement. Let’s take a look at the three finalists and their chances to win.
2018 Heisman Trophy Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Dwayne Haskins +3000
Haskins had a great season, but he has no real chance of winning the Heisman Trophy. The team you play for and how it fares does matter in the eyes of voters, and Ohio State was not as impressive as it has been in the past.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | Heisman Trophy Odds
The numbers were there though, and he deserves a trip to New York City. Haskins led the nation in passing touchdowns (47) and passing yards (4,580), and he showed off his wheels over the latter half of the season too. When the Buckeyes needed him to make something happen with his feet against both Maryland and Michigan, he responded with some key runs, and he notched three touchdowns in the overtime win against Maryland. Haskins will get some votes, but he is going to finish a distant third behind the other two finalists.
Tua Tagovailoa +125
Tagovailoa had been the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy prior to this past weekend. He became the favorite to win the award in mid-September, and by the end of that month he was the clear-cut choice. Tagovailoa’s Heisman Trophy odds strengthened from week to week and prior to Championship Week, he was a -750 favorite to be the first Alabama quarterback to ever win.
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His performance against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game was his first bad game of the season, and it might end up costing him the award. In that game, Tagovailoa was 10-25 for 164 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, and voters seem ready to toss aside his candidacy in one fell swoop if you read the Monday morning quarterbacks.
People are conveniently forgetting how dominant Tagovailoa was prior to the game against Georgia. He didn’t throw an interception until the ninth game of the season, and he has continued to put up great numbers against top defenses despite being injured over the last half of the year. Tagovailoa showed us how unstoppable Alabama looks with a top quarterback, and his numbers are incredible given the defenses the Crimson Tide faced.
Kyler Murray -150
Murray has been considered the second favorite behind Tagovailoa for much of the season, but a solid performance against Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game led to him overtaking Tagovailoa in the final days of the campaign. The Texas A&M transfer has put up gaudy numbers over the course of the year, and he led the nation in yards per attempt (11.9 YPA) and finished with 892 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.
Unlike Tagovailoa, Murray has yet to have a truly bad game. He has notched a passer rating of 150 or more in each of his 13 games this season, and in the few games where he wasn’t incredibly efficient through the air, he ran for right around 100 yards. His passing numbers are almost identical to what we saw from 2017 Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, and those factors have made him the favorite.
Prediction
More and more sportswriters have taken to Twitter over the past week to express their intention of voting for Murray, but I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Tagovailoa. The slate of defenses that Tagovailoa faced was much tougher than what Murray saw over the course of the season, and Tagovailoa played in a far more conservative offense than what we saw in Norman.
There are a couple other small factors I believe will work to tip the scales in favor of Tua too. The first I have already touched on a bit — Big 12 defenses have been criticized by many in the media and the coaching world over the last half-decade, and I think that will cause some voters to steer away from voting for an Oklahoma quarterback for the second straight year. Second, I think some of the older, more hardline voters will punish Murray for going to play baseball after this season, and they won’t want to award him college football’s highest honor on his way out.
To me, voting for Murray is getting too caught up in the moment. It would be akin to Crash winning Best Picture in 2005. Tagovailoa built up a more impressive resume over the course of the season, and he is my pick to win the Heisman Trophy. Being able to bet on him as an underdog is a great opportunity.
