Houston Astros Season Win Total Odds 97.5 Wins (100 over / -120 under)
The Houston Astros got those magical 11 wins to become a World Series champion, so what do they have in mind for an encore? Judging by the off season, it looks like they could do a repeat.
Far too often, teams that have deep playoff runs or win the World Series get complacent. They rest on their laurels and simply plan for everything to go the same way the following season, but as history tells us, it usually doesn’t work out that way.
As the AL West got better around them, the Houston Astros also got better. Let’s not forget, this is a team that had three straight seasons with 106 or more losses from 2011-13.
A lot of key prospects made it to the big leagues together, and had success at the same time. They plugged holes with free agents and trade acquisitions, while having just their second season with at least 100 wins in franchise history and won the World Series.
You have to applaud Jeff Luhnow and the front office , as their aggressive development plans and years of quality drafting have paid off handsomely.
Houston Astros photos with zoom
Houston is coming off of a 101-61 campaign, in which the Astros fell just one game short of being the top seed in the American League.
That was clearly a blessing in disguise, as the Astros drew the overmatched Boston Red Sox in the American League Division series instead of the dangerous New York Yankees.
The Astros still had to go through the Yankees, but may not have made it past the first round had they outflanked the Cleveland Indians in the standings. Houston finished with a 99-63 record per Pythagorean Win-Loss and a 99-63 record per BaseRuns.
As we head into 2018, the Astros are projected to be the best team in baseball per Fangraphs’s standings and their depth charts WAR calculations. The Astros are projected to amass 52.2 fWAR.
A completely replacement-level team filled with players that have exactly 0.0 fWAR would be projected to finish 48-114. That means that the Depth Charts projections would have Houston winning around 100 games.
PECOTA is at 99 wins. None of these projections should come as a surprise because the Astros had one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen last season.
Some big names were in and out for the Astros over the winter. The trade for Gerrit Cole came at a cost of Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, and Joe Musgrove, but he is an upgrade in the rotation for this season and a safety net if an extension cannot be reached with Dallas Keuchel.
The Astros are always playing a few steps ahead and that was a sound move for them. It is a tremendous luxury to have young, cost-controlled position players that allow a team to move prospects to fill needs.
Joe Smith is a high-floor reliever that immediately slots into leverage situations in the bullpen. Hector Rondon is an extremely savvy gamble as he looks to rebuild his stock.
The Astros needed to fill some pen roles with Tyler Clippard and Luke Gregerson out the door and they did just that. This was a strong offseason for a team that really didn’t need a whole lot of help.
Pick & Prediction Under 97.5 Wins -120 over
The AL West is better this season. The Angels have full seasons of Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. Jerry Dipoto has put together a pretty good lineup in Seattle, and Oakland has been taking some over money in the win total market.
The Astros were the only team above .500 in the NL West and got to play 129 of its 162 regular season games against teams that had records below .500. That probably won’t happen again this season.
The Astros were 18-15 against teams with winning records. They should face some stiffer competition this season. The Astros also drew a really poor NL East in interleague play and went 12-1 against the Braves, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies. They did lose two of three to the Nationals
We’re going to give a pretty strong endorsement of the under on this win total, simply because asking a team to win 98 games to go over the total is ludicrous. If any team can do it, it is the Houston Astros.
Houston was more than 60 percent of the way to this total in the first half last year.. They are a great team, and have no weaknesses.
That said, we’ve seen a lot of great teams with no weaknesses comfortably win divisions and not win 98 games. The AL West is a lot better this season, with a more stable bunch in Oakland, some noteworthy additions in Anaheim, and a Seattle offense that is quite good.
Last year, the Astros were the only team above .500 in the AL West. At least one other team will be this season and a third wouldn’t be a surprise.
Another factor is that The World Series hangover is real. Going from the adrenaline of the playoffs to the doldrums of the regular season is hard. In 2017, The Indians had to win 22 in a row to get out of their funk and the Cubs never challenged their win total line
. It isn’t easy to play .605 baseball over the course of six months and that’s what Houston is being asked to do. Last year, three teams won over 97.5 games. In 2016, two did. From 2013-15, only one per season won 98+. In 2012, no team won 98, and in 2011, one team did.
We’re not saying it couldn’t happen, as this team could very well repeat as champions. But, we don’t see this team winning 98 games given all the factors mentioned.
