The field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby is stacked. This is one of the deepest fields we have seen in years, and that means there is plenty of value on a number of horses. With a 20 horse field, you can make some serious dough betting a variety of options and exotic payouts should be through the roof. Now that post position has been determined, let’s take a look at some of the horses to watch in this race.
Odds to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Justify 3-1
Mendelssohn 5-1
Magnum Moon 6-1
Bolt d’Oro 8-1
Audible 8-1
Good Magic 12-1
Vino Rosso 12-1
Hofburg 20-1
Enticed 30-1
Noble Indy 30-1
Solomini 30-1
My Boy Jack 30-1
Free Drop Billy 30-1
Flameaway 30-1
Promises Fulfilled 30-1
Lone Sailor 50-1
Firenze Fire 50-1
Combatant 50-1
Bravazo 50-1
Instilled Regard 50-1
The Favorite
Justify is the favorite despite racing just three times prior to this. His speed rating is off the charts. In all three of his previous races, he finished with at least a 100 speed rating and the 114 he posted in his win at the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive.
There are two things working against Justify at the Kentucky Derby. He has only run in one stakes race and he has not raced at a track other than Santa Anita. After drawing the No. 7 post, he is very likely to close as the betting favorite.
The Contenders
Mendelssohn is the next favorite. He easily cruised to a victory at the UAE Derby, but he did not fare well the one time he ran against the other top horses in this field. Mendelssohn finished eighth at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. He has not raced on American soil since then. The UAE Derby was his first race on dirt, so he is still getting used to running on a new surface.
There’s a lot to like about the next horse on this list. Magnum Moon is 4 for 4 this year, winning at both the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He defeated deep fields in both of those races. However, he has only posted a speed rating of 100 once in his career. That’s a bit concerning and drawing the No. 16 post won’t help matters.
At this point last year, Bolt d’Oro was considered the favorite to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby. There was plenty of reason to be excited about the horse, and he backed that up by winning two Grade 1 Stakes Races in September 2017. He was an odds-on favorite heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he was upset by Good Magic and finished a disappointing third. He was unable to best Justify at the Santa Anita Derby either, yet he is still one of the horses to watch because of his speed rating.
Audible is the last of the horses with odds of less than 10-1. He cruised to a win at the Florida Derby back in late March, and he is peaking at just the right time. Audible posted a speed rating of 105 at the Holy Bull Stakes and performed even better at the Florida Derby with a rating of 107. The concern with this horse is that he has not raced against the best competition.
Longshots to Watch
Noble Indy has yet to race in a Grade 1 Stakes Race, but he topped a field that included three other Kentucky Derby entrants at the Louisiana Derby. The way that he held on despite a late charge from two other horses was impressive. At this price, he might be worth putting in some exotics following this performance. He would be lower than 30-1, but he unfortunately drew post No. 19.
The other longshot to watch is Enticed. He is also 30-1 to win the Kentucky Derby, but he has a more favorable post position. This horse finished behind Vino Rosso at the Wood Memorial, but he was dominant at the Gotham Stakes. His 104 speed rating at that race makes him a horse worth considering.
Check back later in the week for more 2018 Kentucky Derby updates.
