The West region looks very unpredictable in this year’s 2018 NCAA Tournament.
Somehow it comes back to Xavier again, who opened at a somewhat-too-high +420 odds. The Musketeers were generally acknowledged as the weakest # 1 seed by far, and now they get put into a region with North Carolina, Michigan and Gonzaga, all of whom have a lower price.
This could be a case of overreaction. Xavier is still a very good team, and Missouri/Florida State present very little challenge in the 2nd round, compared to Ohio State potentially for Gonzaga, or Houston for Michigan.
The path is a little easier, and Xavier is 28-3 against non-Villanova teams this year (including a now-great-looking win over rival Cincinnati).
Michigan and Gonzaga couldn’t be hotter as commodities in the market right now, which is generally NOT what you want to look for when investing in a team .
Somehow, despite the fact that Gonzaga has lower odds than Xavier to win the region, their odds are actually better than Xavier, UNC and Michigan to win the title.
Gonzaga at 27/1, with their resume and incredible frontcourt talent, seem to offer value here.
- North Carolina 5-to-2
- Gonzaga 5-to-2
- Michigan 3-to-1
- Xavier 4-to-1
- Ohio State 12-to-1
- Houston 12-to-1
- Texas A&M 20-to-1
- Missouri 20-to-1
- Florida State 40-to-1
- Providence 50-to-1
- San Diego State 50-to-1
- South Dakota State 100-to-1
- UNC-Greensboro 300-to-1
- Montana 500-to-1
- Lipscomb 2000-to-1
- North Carolina Central 5000-to-1
- Texas Southern 5000-to-1
2018 NCAA Tournament West Region : Florida State Seminoles vs Missouri Tigers odds
There are two teams in this region that bear mentioning. First, Michael Porter Jr.’s return is going to drive the public to bet the Tigers on gameday, especially against a Seminole team that has gotten very little public support for a lot of the year.
But then you throw in the weird situation with Jordan Barnett (one of Missouri’s best players) being suspended for the game because of a DUI, and it definitely makes things more unclear.
Florida State is a small favorite, but there has been nothing down the stretch to give them credibility, as they lost their last 4 games on a road or neutral court.
This is setting up to motivate people to play Missouri.
2018 NCAA Tournament West Region: Houston Cougars -San Diego State odds
The second game is Houston-San Diego State, and this game is setting up as a trap. Houston is a team that a lot of America saw for the first time this past weekend.
The Cougars looked very impressive making it to the AAC Championship Game before losing in heartbreaking fashion to Cincinnati, with a turnover on their final possession.
San Diego State is a team that has come out of nowhere that very few people have watched..
Houston was a trendy deep sleeper on the Selection Show, and mentioned by several analysts who don’t watch a lot of games, so we think the Cougars will receive a lot of buzz from the general media.
That generally means the value lies solely with the underdog. Give me San Diego State +4.
2018 NCAA Tournament West Region : Underdogs to Watch
Aside from San Diego State, who is incredibly live , but a measly +4 , we’ll recommend South Dakota State at +8. The emergence of freshman David Jenkins Jr. at guard for the Jackrabbits is notable.
Everyone knows about Mike Daum inside, but Jenkins was incredible in their last 2 games of the Summit League tournament, scoring 24 points and then 29 in the title game.
That type of 1-2 punch, surrounded with guys who can shoot, is lethal in the tournament. Meanwhile, Ohio State is a team that overachieved to a certain extent this year, and only has 1 truly impressive road win at Purdue on their resume.
They are coming off a very long layoff that will create a potentially flat start to the game, so this could get very interesting quickly.
