Shall we begin? After re-stating my quarterback draft priorities and giving you an early look at who didn’t make the my Top 10 NFL quarterback prospects list Friday, it’s time to unleash the real beast.
Before I get to the Top 10, I want to talk a little about guys who barely missed the cut. There are things to like about each of these guys, but real weaknesses I see in their games that no one in the NFL has time to fix. Again, this is why the NFL needs a developmental league and why Vince McMahon’s new XFL needs to serve as one, whether he likes it or not.
CAMP ARMS
What’s a “camp arm?” It’s simple. In training camp, with something like 90 players vying to make the squad, a team protects its Nos. 1 and 2 quarterbacks by bringing in a couple of extra guys to toss passes to the 147 receivers, backs and tight ends who also won’t make the team. There’s no shame in being a camp arm, but you’ve got to make the most of it. You must get every rep you can, live at the facility and try your damndest to earn a spot on a practice squad because you don’t have the innate traits that can land you there out the gate. Speaking of that.
PRACTICE SQUAD QBs
These three guys all have the X-Factor of elite athleticism that, to me, makes them prime quarterbacks to develop into back ups. For whatever reason, the mobile back up quarterback is simply undervalued in the NFL. Certainly, a guy that can make plays with his feet, avoid the rush and keep his eyes downfield is a lot more valuable to me coming off the bench than a stone-footed Matt McGloin. Hill, to me, is an especially interesting prospect that has a lot of the qualities I saw in Dak Prescott a few years ago. He’s like the store-brand version. A guy like Tyrod Taylor is the perfect example of a player with this ability maxing out his abilities. No, he’s not an NFL starter, but he can win games and who would you rather warming up on the sideline when your starter goes down? A player like Taylor or Scott Tolzien?
THE TOP 10
https://youtu.be/cDnVzG-ikI8
10. Nic Shimonek, Texas Tech
2017: 66.5 completion percentage, 3,963 yards, 33 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, one rushing touchdown, 6-3, 225 pounds
Shimonek had the bad fortune of following 2016 first round pick Patrick Mahomes, but he was legitimately good running the Red Raiders offense this season and, physically, actually looks a lot like Mahomes to me.
With Shimonek leading the show, Texas Tech was the No. 23 offense in NCAA FBS and that’s out of 130 schools. In a pass-first offense, he has a fantastic completion percentage and physically looks like he can make all the throws. I like how he keeps his eyes downfield, even on the move and doesn’t seem to pay a lot of attention to the rush.
Shimonek played well statistically in most of the Red Raiders’ big games, even though they took a loss in almost all of them. But this was a team that stacked up losses in the middle of the year and in two of them, a 31-13 loss to Iowa State and a 27-3 loss to TCU, Shimonek was way off. The clutch performances, with the exception of rivalry game win over Texas, 27-23, just weren’t there. For instance, against Kansas State. Texas Tech took a 35-24 lead at the top of the fourth quarter. Any score over the rest of the period would have wrapped up the game, Shimonek couldn’t put a drive together that put the Wildcats away. Kansas State scored on two more drives and won the game in the first overtime when Shimonek, with one final chance to lead a scoring drive, came up short.
Shimonek’s pocket awareness is nowhere near where it needs to be. He stands flat-footed a lot. In the Red Raiders’ offense, that’s fine most of the time because the ball is supposed to come out so quick on one-read plays. In the NFL, that’s just a guaranteed sack. He makes it worse when he does move around and evades pressure by rolling out to the right or left. Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson can pull that off in the NFL. Nobody else can. Again, in the league, that’s a sack.
Pro comparisons: Derek Anderson, Chad Henne
Ideal team fits: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots
9. Riley Ferguson, Memphis
2017: 63.1 completion percentage, 4,257 yards, 38 touchdowns, nine interceptions, six rushing touchdowns, 6-4, 210 pounds
Ferguson is an interesting prospect. Like Shimonek, he followed a former first round draft pick in Patrick Lynch. He has a lightning-quick trigger, which reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers. He’s got a nice set of wheels and can move around and his pocket presence looks NFL ready to me. You rarely see him do anything but move forward and step into his protection when it’s required. The thing is, in Memphis’ offense, it’s not required a lot.
Ferguson makes most of his reads at the line. When he drops back, you don’t see a lot of head movement because he’s already made his choice on where he needs to throw the ball. In college, especially when you face teams like UConn, East Carolina and Tulane, you can do that. In the pros, it’s how you throw five interceptions in the first half of your first NFL start. I’m looking at you, Nathan Peterman.
Because Ferguson’s decisions are predicated primarily on that pre-snap read, the clutch performances you need out of a quarterback don’t show up. He was completely shut down in Memphis’ first match up with UCF, a 40-13 loss. In the American Conference championship, he got another shot at them, significantly improving his performance and leading a 14-point comeback in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime. In the second overtime, Ferguson had to deliver a touchdown to keep the game going and, unlike they did most of the day, the Knights were able to get the stop.
With a month to prepare for the Tigers leading up to the Liberty Bowl, Iowa State kept the offense in check for much of the game, winning 21-20 and blanking Memphis in the fourth quarter when all they needed to do in those final 15 minutes was get into field goal range and put it through the uprights. Ferguson had an efficient day, but by dictating where he could go with the ball on those pre-snap reads, Iowa State was able to hold him to one of his lowest passing yardage and touchdown totals of the season.
Pro comparisons: Austin Davis, Case Keenum
Ideal team fits: Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts
To be continued in Part 2
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