At last we’re here, the top three of my 2018 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings and, if you’ve been paying attention, you probably already know who they are. What you don’t know in the order in which they show up.
If you’d like to recap the list and the honorable mentions, you can start by reading Part One, then Part Two and Part Three.
Here the cliffs notes: 10. Nic Shimonek – Texas Tech, 9. Riley Ferguson – Memphis, 8. Logan Woodside – Toledo, 7. J.T. Barrett – Ohio State, 6. Josh Allen – Wyoming, 5. Lamar Jackson – Louisville, 4. Mason Rudolph – Oklahoma State
TOP 10 concluded…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9xDIb1N2LI
3. Josh Rosen, UCLA
2017: 62.6 completion percentage, 3,756 yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, two rushing touchdowns, 6-4, 218 pounds
I like Rosen a lot more now than I did at the beginning of the year for one reason, Jared Goff isn’t a bust. Rosen and Goff are so much alike that the stink of Goff’s rookie season filtered over to Rosen. I’m not the only one who saw it that way. Two years ago, Goff was the consensus No. 1-ranked quarterback coming out of college. Now, a guy that looks just like him, isn’t ranked any higher than No. 2 anywhere I’ve looked. It’s interesting.
But Goff was saved by Sean McVay and the future seems pretty bright for the kid. In turn, that makes Rosen a more interesting pro prospect. Is it fair? Probably not, but that’s how it is. Regardless, Rosen is a first round talent and will probably be the first or second quarterback off the board. Like Goff coming out of Cal, the resume of clutch performances aren’t there. The team around him, with a few exceptions, wasn’t very good. Especially his senior season and he was coached by Jim Mora Jr., a guy I wouldn’t hire to work a mop at Denny’s. The Bruins had exactly one winning season in his three years as a starter and his injury history over the last two seasons makes me want to stroke my beard and say “hmm” aloud.
With nothing clutch on tape, his pocket awareness is tough to judge. He doesn’t move around a lot and since he’s in the shotgun all the time, he’s automatically got at least an extra second. The ball comes out of his hand quick and he’s very accurate. He probably trusts his arm too much and will sometimes make throws that work in college that are drive-killing picks in the pros.
Pro comparisons: Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Blaine Gabbert
Ideal team fit: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals
2. Sam Darnold, USC
2017: 63.1 completion percentage, 4,143 yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, five rushing touchdowns, 6-4, 220 pounds
Hey, I’m as surprised as anybody to see Darnold up here. From the handful/pieces of games I got to watch during the regular season, I kind of thought there was some major bust potential here. Then, I did the research and completely changed my mind. He’s probably the third most physically gifted guy on the list, behind Lamar Jackson and J.T. Barrett.
Still, there’s a distinct lack of clutch performances on his resume. He finished his career on a pretty damn good team went 5-6 against ranked opponents and 1-1 in bowl games. The clutch game I can point at is pretty damn good, the 2017 Rose Bowl 52-49 win over No. 5-ranked Penn State. USC opened the fourth quarter down 49-35. Darnold led two scoring drives in the final quarter and tied the game up, 49-49 with 27-yard strike to Deontay Burnett with 1:20 to go in the game. A pick from Penn State’s Matt Boermeester would allow the Trojans to kick the winning field goal.
There’s a knock on Darnold in reading his progressions. I don’t see it on the tape. He keeps his head moving, fools the safeties and puts the ball on the money. He has tremendous movement in the pocket, with the athleticism that hurt teams that don’t spy him. He gets an incomplete on clutch, but he checks all the rest of the boxes for me.
Pro comparisons: Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck
Ideal team fits: Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets
1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
2017: 70.5 completion percentage, 4,627 yards, 43 touchdowns, six interceptions, 311 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 6-1, 220 pounds
This is why I’m the best quarterback scout in America; I believe what I see. There’s an old Marx Brothers gag that Richard Pryor updated and made funnier and it sums up my analysis versus the other QB scouts, “Who are you gonna believe? Me, or your lying eyes?”
I believe my eyes. Mayfield is the best quarterback coming out in this draft and the only one I’d trust as a Day One starter. Mayfield, in his three seasons with the Sooners, was 14-4 against ranked opponents. His 1-2 bowl record comes from pushing his team to the college football playoff two of his three seasons. As a sophomore, he lost to Clemson and Deshaun Watson. This year, his team lost a double-overtime nailbiter to Georgia, 54-48.
He was in the Heisman race all three years at Oklahoma and won it this season. You have plenty of clutch performances to pick from, even in losses. The Sooners didn’t lose the Rose Bowl against Georgia because of Mayfield. They lost because they couldn’t tackle any running back wearing a red jersey. Mayfield was the only reason they were in the game, let alone got it two overtimes.
Mayfield rides the pocket like a Paso Fino. He’s pinpoint accurate to the point of being ridiculous from any foot stance and on the move. The man completed 70.5 percent of his passes this season and that’s out of 404 attempts. That completion percentage was down from last year when he completed 70.9 percent. In fact, his lowest completion percentage at Oklahoma was his first year there when he posted a 68.1. He’s eclipsed 40 touchdown passes in consecutive years. He’s a winner and he’s proven it on the field for years against the best of the best. In the right situation, like Prescott got into in Dallas, he can help a team post a winning season as a rookie.
Pro comparisons: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott
Ideal team fits: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Redskins, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals
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