Coming into this rankings process, the choice for the top running back in the 2018 NFL Draft class seems obvious. But I thought the same thing last season and when I picked Leonard Fournette as my top rusher in spite of punditry’s love for Christian McCaffrey. It turns out, we might all have been off the mark since New Orleans Saints rookie Alvin Kamara took home the offensive rookie of the year award for 2017.
That’s not even mentioning Kansas City Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt who nobody had in their Top Five and he led the NFL in rushing. Hunt, who was picked in the third round and Kamara, who went in the second, help perpetuate the recent myth that “you can find a running back anywhere in the draft.”
Sure, you can find an NFL starter in any of the draft’s seven rounds, but you could say that about any position. It doesn’t change the fact that you can only consistently nab a game-changing superstar in the draft’s first round. Of the NFL’s 10 top rushers last season, five were former first round picks (Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott) and one, LeSean McCoy, was a second rounder.
Now, after saying that, how many of my Top Five are potential first rounders? Honestly, I say three, but that doesn’t mean we wont’ see a run on RBs in the second round.
WHO DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT?
10. Jordan Wilkins (Ole Miss), 9. Nyheim Hines (N.C. State), 8. Bo Scarbrough (Alabama), 7. Nick Chubb (Georgia), 6. Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)…
There might be some surprising names in that list, specifically Chubb. He’s a bruiser back that runs like a finesse back. He’ll have to be coached into a one-cut guy in the NFL. I really like Hines and Penny because their ability to be dynamic in the kick and punt return game. Scarbrough should be an excellent short-yardage back and could develop into a LeGarrette Blount style basher, but he’s a two-down back.
TOP FIVE
5. Ito Smith, Southern Miss
Stats: 248 carries, 1,415 yards, 13 touchdowns, 40 catches, 396 receiving yards, two touchdowns (5-9, 195 pounds)
Smith doesn’t seem to be getting the love he deserves on many draft lists, but I see the second coming of Darren Sproles or Dave Meggett here. He’s got plenty of shifty moves in the open field and soft hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Just like Hunt last season, Smith is coming from a team that counted on him to do all the heavy lifting on the ground and in the passing game and he delivered any time he touched the ball.
Ideal situation: Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, New England Patriots
https://youtu.be/m2LOimNkKqo
4. Derrius Guice, LSU
Stats: 237 carries, 1,251 yards, 11 touchdowns, 18 catches, two receiving touchdowns (5-11, 218 pounds)
Guice is the No. 2 back on plenty of boards, but here’s where he takes a hit for me; he doesn’t look like a natural receiver out of the backfield. Now, LSU didn’t require him to catch the ball a lot, but all I can judge is the film and it’s just not there. He’s a powerful runner, but to be an elite RB in the NFL, you must be a three-down back and just as deadly in the passing game as you are the running game.
Ideal situation: Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks
3. Ronald Jones II, USC
Stats: 261 carries, 1,550 yards, 19 touchdowns, 14 catches, 187 yards, one receiving touchdown (6-0, 200 pounds)
Like Guice, Jones doesn’t have a lengthy highlight reel receiving the ball. What I did see when he did move out of the backfield, is soft hands and a quick hip turn once he hauls it in. He ran a 4.65 after pulling his hamstring at the NFL Combine, but the film doesn’t lie. The dude is fast and hits fifth gear by the second step.
Ideal situation: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders
2. Sony Michel, Georgia
Stats: 156 carries, 1,227 yards, nine touchdowns, nine catches, 96 yards, one touchdown (5-11, 215 pounds)
Michel put up these numbers splitting time in the same backfield with Nick Chubb, who will likely go in the second round of April’s draft. Where Michel gets the edge is his body control, his quick lateral step and his ability to turn on the jets in traffic. This allows him to pick up big yardage without needing much of a hole. He too wasn’t used much as a receiver, but like Jones, he shows plenty of natural ability catching the ball out of the backfield and running check-down routes.
Ideal situation: Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State
Stats: 217 carries, 1,271 yards, 18 touchdowns, 54 catches, 632 yards, three touchdowns (5-11, 230 pounds)
Barkley is the best running back prospect to come into the NFL Draft since Todd Gurley and he’s coming in without any injury recovery issues or questions. Yes, I’m ranking him above Ezekiel Elliott too. If you were building the prototype running back NFL offenses are looking for, your Gurleys, your Bells your David Johnsons, it’d look a hell of a lot like Barkley. He should be the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. If he’s not, he’ll definitely be the No. 2.
Ideal situation: Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts
