Ah, the Cleveland Browns. I’m not looking it up, but my guess is more money has been made betting against Cleveland than for any other team, even the New England Patriots.
Last year’s 0-16 finish was one for the record books. I never believed, for a moment, that the 2008 Detroit Lions would ever be matched for ineptitude. I thought the Lions’ achievement, that of going winless in spite of a salary cap, open free agency and a draft specifically structured to pump poor teams with talent would never be matched. To that, the Browns said, “Here, hold my toilet.”
Cleveland has won a total of four games in three seasons. In spite of that, here are the odds from BetDSI Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns 2018-19 Regular Season Win Total
Over 5 (+110)
Under 5 (-140)
Five wins? Five? Since 2013 Cleveland has surpassed five wins only once, a 7-9 finish in 2014. In fact, since 2008, the team has won exactly five games three times. That means in every other season, they’ve won four or fewer games. What makes the books think five is even on the table in 2018?
Let’s take a look at the team.
In every way, this offense is better than the one Hue Jackson fielded last season. Josh Gordon came back from his suspension in NFL shape and picked up right where he left off a couple of seasons ago, giving Cleveland every reason not to toss him out with the trash. They traded for Jarvis Landry, maybe the best slot receiver in the league and have Corey Coleman in his third year.
My latest at @espn – Why the Cleveland Browns are legit wild card sleepers – https://t.co/VuEsrObqOC
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 10, 2018
At tight end, they have 2017 first round pick David Njoku. At running back they brought in Carlos Hyde and drafted Nick Chubb out of Georgia in the second round.
More importantly, Cleveland now has a serious quarterback situation. I’ve made it clear I don’t view Tyrod Taylor as anything other than a high-end back up and a short-term starter, but he will be far superior to DeShone Kizer.
The fact is, there’s every chance Taylor won’t even start the first game, in spite of Jackson’s declarations to the contrary, because I expect rookie Baker Mayfield to beat him out in camp. I made no secret that Mayfield was my top QB in this draft class and it’s since come to light that I was far from alone in that evaluation. I expect a lot more from the Browns’ offense this season, regardless of who plays quarterback.
#Browns QB Tyrod Taylor has never graded outside the top-15 as a starter & last year made the top-10 as he led the #Bills to the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/eUSvgGW1EK
— PFF CLE Browns (@PFF_Browns) May 9, 2018
Here’s the problem. In spite of Cleveland’s rush defense rating last season, they were atrocious. Why would anyone care to run on them when they could pass for 500 yards every game? Gregg Williams is a terrible defensive coordinator and will waste the talent this team has acquired on that side of the ball until they finally show him the door. I do not expect any serious improvement in that unit at all.
That means the Browns will be in shootouts. Lots of them. Can they win six of them? Let’s take a look at their schedule.
They open with the Pittsburgh Steelers and at the New Orleans Saints, so that’s probably 0-2. They host the New York Jets in Week Three and that could very well be their first win in two seasons.
#Browns No. 1 Baker Mayfield on a deep ball vs. No. 4 Denzel Ward pic.twitter.com/OoBHdDXs76
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) May 4, 2018
Say they steal a game against the Cincinnati Bengals, and that’s entirely possible, then beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers. That’s still just four victories and I’m not convinced they’ll even do that.
Yeah. This is a better Browns team, but I’d still go the under.
