Do you believe in Patrick Mahomes? Andy Reid sure does and the Kansas City Chiefs have pushed all their chips to the center of the table, shipping Alex Smith off to the Washington Redskins and plugging the second-year quarterback out of Texas Tech in as their starter for 2018.
It turns out Reid and the Chiefs aren’t alone. The oddsmakers at BetDSI Sportsbook are obviously feeling good about Mahomes and the Chiefs, with the over-under win total to prove it. Here it is.
Kansas City Chiefs 2018-19 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8.5 (-114)
Under 8.5 (-116)
Mahomes started one game last season, the finale against the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Kansas City was playing for nothing, having already secured their playoff positioning the week before. With that in mind, Reid rested Smith and handed Mahommes the keys.
The then rookie finished 22-of-35 for 284 yards, no touchdowns and one pick. It wasn’t a spectacular effort, but it showed Reid all he needed to see. The team belongs to the 2017 first-round pick now.
Mahomes will have plenty of weapons to work with, starting in the backfield with Kareem Hunt. His fellow second-year player led the NFL with 1,327 rushing yards last season, averaged 4.9 yards per carry and scored eight rushing touchdowns. He added 53 catches for 455 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
Who’s the player you’re most excited to watch next season? It’s Patrick Mahomes for me.
— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) May 22, 2018
The team plugged in free agent wide receiver Sammy Watkins to play outside along with Tyreek Hill. At tight end, Travis Kelce is simply one of the best offensive weapons in the league. He’s surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for two consecutive seasons and set a career high with eight touchdowns last year.
Defensively, Kansas City was already solid, but added depth in the draft with Derrick Nnadi and Breeland Speaks. Dee Ford and Justin Houston are one of the best pass-rushing outside linebacker tandems in the NFL when both are healthy. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, one or the other has been hurt over the last two seasons and they’ve rarely gotten to play together.
There are gaping holes in the Chiefs’ secondary thanks to trading away one of the five or six best corners in the league, Marcus Peters, to the Los Angeles Rams. Eric Berry is returning after missing all of last season with a knee injury, so that will help some. As of right now, Kansas City’s starting corners are Keith Reaser and Steven Nelson. Nobody’s scared of that depth chart.
.@LRiddickESPN expects a new star to be born in the NFL next season 👀
"Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck…I believe Patrick Mahomes will be better than all those guys." pic.twitter.com/UR706aoBao
— Carlin vs. Joe (@CarlinvsJoe) May 21, 2018
Ultimately, it all comes down to Kansas City’s schedule and it’s intriguing early. They open at the San Diego Chargers, a team which plenty of pundits are filing onto the bandwagon. They then travel to Pittsburgh for a sure loss to the Steelers, then host the San Francisco 49ers and play at Mile High once again against the Denver Broncos. I could see a 3-1 start.
Consecutive games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots will be tough, but the Chiefs handled New England just fine last year. Of course, that was with Smith calling the shots.
2018 Kansas City Chiefs #ClayProjections —> Game-by-game predictions, player projections, unit grades + more! pic.twitter.com/2i1XGIQFc7
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 15, 2018
Really, it all comes down to the other teams in the AFC West. Can Jon Gruden right the Oakland Raiders’ ship? Will Case Keenum replicate what he did with the Minnesota Vikings with the Broncos? Will Anthony Lynn lock himself in a porta-john and miss the entire opening game?
Mahomes is just too much of a wild card for me to take the over. I say under is the smart play.
