With the NFL Draft completed and most of the bigger trades and free agent signings completed, we now have a solid idea who each team will field in its final roster. At least we know who’ll likely be starting and who we’ll be drafting on our fantasy teams.
With that information in hand, BetDsi Sportsbook has released their updated post-draft win totals. Just like with our draft grades, we’ll begin our journey here with the AFC East and where better to start than they 2017-18 AFC Champion New England Patriots?
New England Patriots 2018-19 Regular Season Win Totals – Odds updated 2018-09-03
Over 11.5 (-116)
Under 11.5 (-114)
On its face, this might look like easy money. The Patriots haven’t finished worse than 12-4 since 2009 when they went 10-6. Since Tom Brady took over the starting job in New England, the team has finished with fewer than 11.5 wins five times. That’s five times out of 17 seasons, so just playing the odds alone, you should go over, right?
Not so fast.
We all know the cliff is coming for Tom Brady. The fact that he’s avoided the Humpty-Dumpty-like great fall up to this point is already unheard of. Can he do it for one more season? No one, and I mean NO ONE, really knows. If Brady does falter or get injured, his back ups are pure garbage. If you bet the over and watch Brady get helped off the field nursing a knee in September, you can kiss that cash goodbye.
Tom Brady Reveals That Humanity Will Perish Long Before He Retires https://t.co/ExIUSKw82V pic.twitter.com/inzJkcb8aE
— The Onion (@TheOnion) April 25, 2018
On the positive side, this will likely be Bill Belichick’s final season as head coach (he might hang around as general manager) and he won’t go down without swinging a few haymakers. New England added some solid additions in free agency and had a nice draft, nailing both its first round picks.
Add to that the return of Julian Edelman to the passing offense, and it’s hard to bet against the Pats. This is a team that, counting the Super Bowl, has gone 32-6 over the last two seasons.
If you’re taking the under, you must believe that Tom Brady won’t be “Tom Brady” this season. By rights, Brady should have gone over the falls last season and all he did was lead the NFL in pass attempts (581) and yardage (4,577), complete 66.3 percent of his passes and throw 32 touchdowns with just eight picks.
https://twitter.com/TomBradysEgo/status/989670805863849984
In the playoffs, he completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,132 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. There’s elite, then there’s other-worldly. If Brady falls down 10 QB rating points, he’d still be a 92.8 guy. Better, by far, than any other QB in the AFC East.
More than that, you have to believe an AFC East team will be a contender. With the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets fielding interim or rookie quarterbacks, it’s hard to see either of those teams being in the mix.
That just leaves the Miami Dolphins and they lost and traded away too many offensive and defensive weapons to seriously contend for the division.
Isaiah Wynn laughed when asked about protecting Tom Brady: "That's every lineman's dream to have a quarterback like Tom Brady back there."
— Zack Cox (@zm_cox) April 27, 2018
Even if Brady goes over the cliff, there’s probably still enough in New England to win the division. If I’m placing a bet here, I’m looking at the over.
