There’s been just one draft ranker, scout and writer that has nailed the NFL quarterback position in the NFL Draft over the last few years and you’re reading him. For whatever reason, whenever these talking heads get their pie holes babbling, they find a way to talk themselves out of the obvious. They overlook what they’re seeing on film and, always, over-emphasize stuff that doesn’t matter.
Here’s my 2015 Pre-Draft QB rankings.
If you notice anything about those three sets of rankings, it’s how off everybody in America was but me. Last year before the draft, I detailed how I make my analysis in a series of articles, beginning here.
"@deshaunwatson is the next face of the NFL."
📺: @PSchrags // @gmfb pic.twitter.com/0VVX1qEtQC
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 25, 2018
To sum up, here’s my quarterback evaluation criteria in order of importance.
1. Is he clutch?
2. Can he read his pass progressions?
3. Does he know how to move in the pocket?
4. Is he accurate? (yep, all the way down at No. 4).
5. Is he athletic? (But this only matters sometimes)
Here’s what I don’t care about; height and arm strength. Those are the “prototype” traits that are valued far too highly by NFL scouts. I can prove it without even trying. Here are the six best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Maybe your list is a little different, but you shouldn’t be able to argue too much with mine.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Matt Ryan
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Russell Wilson
#Patriots practicing indoors today, no Rob Gronkowski sighting in the portion open to the media. Tom Brady present, wearing a glove on each hand. He caught a pass, didn’t show any signs of discomfort after doing so. pic.twitter.com/Vb8inzM54a
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) January 26, 2018
Of those six, only three (Brady, Ryan and Roethlisberger) fit the prototype mold. Rodgers is 6-2, Brees is 6-0 and Wilson is 5-11. Rodgers is barely on the QB height borderline and Brees and Wilson are way below it. Yet, here we are. A full 50 percent of the best QBs in the league don’t fit the mold the scouts are looking for. What does that tell you? How about that the mold is wrong?
Here’s the other thing I’m not particularly concerned with and that 2016 draft is a great example of it; a guy’s “ceiling.” Here’s why, I don’t think you can predict it. When you look at that 2016 class, if you redrafted it after that first season, Dak Prescott goes first, Carson Wentz still goes second and maybe Jared Goff doesn’t go in the first round at all. If you re-draft it now, after the 2017 season, Wentz goes first, Goff is second and Prescott third. Does that mean the scouts were right too? Maybe.
Coaching obviously matters and no player comes into the league a finished product. Still, I’m judging a guy based on what he’s shown me in college because, frankly, that’s the only thing I can evaluate. None of us can see the future. If the Rams, with Jeff Fisher as head coach, had taken Wentz or Prescott, would either be as good as they are today? If Fisher hadn’t been fired, would Goff be playing in his first Pro Bowl Sunday? If there is such a thing as a “ceiling,” a guy has to go into the right situation to hit it.
hear me out….. if you just delete every moment of nick foles's life where jeff fisher is within 200ft of him… hes had one hell of a career.
— Tony X (@soIoucity) January 22, 2018
I don’t think quarterbacks can be made. They can be improved, but the thing that makes Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers special wasn’t picked up in a film room or on a practice field. They were born with it. It’s what I saw when I evaluated Prescott two years ago. It’s what I saw when I evaluated Deshaun Watson last year.
So analysts can talk about “ceilings” all they want, but if the Cleveland Browns take one of these guys at No. 1, can Hue Jackson help him reach it? I say, no. I sure as hell don’t think Bill O’Brien did anything with Watson in Houston last season other than get the hell out of his way. My evaluations of quarterbacks comes down to the answer of this question; could I win with this guy, today?
Before I get into the Top 10, you need to understand something. Just because I think a guy is a Top 10 prospect coming into the draft doesn’t mean I think he can start in the NFL. It’s the hardest job in all of sports. There are 32 NFL teams right now and there aren’t 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. The truth is, we have more starting level guys active in the league right now than at any time in my lifetime. By my counting, there are 25 legitimate starting quarterbacks that will suit up in 2018 not counting Mitchell Trubisky with the Chicago Bears, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and any of these guys that will be drafted.
When your DC says one of the reasons he came back is the QB! #MitchellTrubisky #BearDown #Monstersofthemidway #Dabears #Bears #VicFangio pic.twitter.com/51h1aY23IT
— Jeffery L Carter (@jcarter54) January 19, 2018
There are probably 80 quarterbacks on NFL rosters at any given time. They are the 80 best quarterbacks in the entire world and a full 55 of them would be in danger of catching a battery upside the head and being booed off the field if they suited up for your team. My honest assessment of the quarterbacks in my Top 10 is that three of them have the ability to join that starting group. Another four are probably lifetime back ups and one guy, our “ceiling guy,” if you will, I just don’t know. He intrigues me, but there’s no way I’d take him in the first round.
The rest of these guys, I honestly don’t see getting a job in the NFL. Maybe the next Kurt Warner or Tony Romo are in this pile of quarterbacks I tossed out of the rankings, but the onus to prove that is on them. I didn’t see it in my evaluations.
Just in case you’re wondering, here are the future realtors, auto sales floor managers and high school football coaches coming out in this year’s draft; Chase Litton (Marshall), Luke Falk (Washington State), Kurt Benkert (Virginia), Mike White (Western Kentucky), Alex McGough (Florida International), Kyle Lauletta (Richmond), Brandon Silvers (Troy), Richard Lagow (Indiana) and Kyle Allen (Houston).
Chase Litton/QB/Marshall out here dropping dimes. Nice touch pass. -FF pic.twitter.com/kuz0PhmL4a
— Scouts Elite NFL (@ScoutsEliteNFL) January 21, 2018
Now, if you’ve actually looked at the guys coming out in the draft this season, you know that leaves more than 10 guys left. I mention the guys that almost made the list too in part one. For them, and for this group of fine, upstanding young men, luckily there’s the Canadian Football League, the Arena League and now the XFL if they want to still work on that professional football dream. The NFL needs quarterbacks and I love to be proven wrong.
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