Washington Nationals Season Win Total:
Odds 92.5 Wins (-130 over / 110 under)
The team that has the fewest potential downfalls in the National League East, , is the Washington Nationals. There aren’t a whole lot of ifs with this team. The Nationals won 97 games last season and won the NL East by 20 games, ironically, over the Marlins, who traded away their four best players in the fire sale to end all fire sales. There doesn’t really appear to be a challenger to the Nationals, so the only things left to figure out about their regular season are whether or not they go over their win total and if they have home field advantage in the National League Division series.
The Nationals were as good as advertised last season, with a 96-66 Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a 96-66 record per BaseRuns. Using that context-neutral standings metric, their season run differential would have been +143 instead of +147.
This is a very solid team with very few weaknesses. Just about everybody of consequence from last season is back in the mix this season.The National League East still looks like a division in which the other four teams will struggle to get to .500 or better, so it should be pretty cut and dry
But, the Nationals do have a high season win total as a result. The margin for error is quite small with a high season win total because it requires a remarkable level of consistency over six months and 162 games.
It requires a healthy team and things to go according to plan. Even if things don’t, the Nationals should win the East.
The Nationals really just shuffled the deck in terms of depth over the winter. They didn’t make any significant signings or transactions that would move the needle one way or another.
All in all, it was a pretty quiet offseason. Depth is a good thing and the Nationals have a lot of guys with MLB experience in their minor league system now, that they can call up at a moment’s notice.
Pick & Prediction Over 92.5 Wins -130 over
The Nationals easily have the fewest question marks in the National League East.
There are a couple of teams that had lousy seasons in the division, that should do better this year, but Washington is still the best team here by a pretty fair margin and has played extremely well within the division in recent years.
Dave Martinez was a good hire, and should have better opinions on lineup construction and, as a Joe Maddon discipline, should have some more informed takes on when to deploy relievers.
Players seem to like Dusty Baker as a person, but most baseball scribes and pundits aren’t on board with his skills as a tactician.
Our guess here is that Dave Martinez is a comfortable upgrade, but it certainly isn’t a negative and this team won 96 games last year.
The rest of the division is gradually closing the gap, but the Nationals are an excellent team that could be even better with more luck on the health front.
The Nationals have depth in case injuries pop up again, but this is, a team with a very high floor and a pretty high ceiling.
