When Super Bowl LIII is kicked off in Atlanta on Feb. 3, 2019, will we get two new teams matched up for the Vince Lombardi Trophy? The oddsmakers don’t seem to think so. Taking a look at the 2018 Super Bowl Futures, it’s clear the books are banking on a rematch between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. Considering the game came down to the wire, as it often does when the Patriots are involved, that wouldn’t be such a bad thing for ratings, for betting and for your local Super Bowl party.
I mean, who among us doesn’t want to watch a 41 year-old Tom Brady walk off the field in disgust while refusing to shake any opponent’s hand? It can be a new Super Sunday tradition.
Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers.
AFC
As is often the case, in a weak AFC East and with a healthy and elite Tom Brady, New England is easily the favorite in the at +400. The next closest AFC squad is also no surprise in the Pittsburgh Steelers at +900.
If you want to throw money at the Pats, here’s your dice roll; will this be the year Brady goes over the quarterback cliff? I predicted it would happen this past season and couldn’t have been more wrong. He had one of his finest years as a passer and while you probably read plenty of articles blaming him for New England’s Super Bowl loss (specifically his late-game fumble), I didn’t write any of them. The guy played his ass off. The loss had everything to do with a defense that couldn’t get the Philadelphia Eagles off the field and let them convert fourth downs anytime they wanted.
But the reaper is coming for Brady and he’s chased the bastard off longer than anyone. The only way the future Hall of Famer can beat him is to retire before the Grim one runs him down. Kurt Warner did. Brett Favre didn’t and neither did Peyton Manning.
I’m intrigued by the Indianapolis Colts at +4000 and if you’re feeling the combination of Andrew Luck and Frank Reich (and I most certainly am), then you need to jump on this one before the books figure out what they’ve done. With a healthy Luck and a completely worthless Chuck Pagano, the Colts were a consistent factor in the AFC, even making it all the way to the AFC title game three years ago. With a competent coach, this could be a team that takes a major jump this season.
The Oakland Raiders at +3000 might be downright larcenous. With their own inept coach, Jack Del Rio, at the helm, they were a Super Bowl favorite last season. Jon Gruden takes over a roster that needs just a few tweaks to get over the hump.
NFC
Even if Nick Foles was still going to be the starting quarterback (and he isn’t) the Eagles are the obvious choice to open the season as the NFC favorites and they are at +800. Here’s what concerns me about them. Carson Wentz is obviously a franchise quarterback, but he was hurt so late in the season you wonder if it’ll take him half a year to get back into his playing form. Foles will most likely be traded this off-season (and if I’m the Buffalo Bills, I’m already making that call), so it’s Wentz’s show the whole way. Will he be 100 percent come opening day? It’s possible, but look at what happened with Derek Carr this past season and that wasn’t an ACL. It was a broken leg.
Green Bay is perennially in the mix and at +1000, they’re the No. 2-ranked NFC squad and it’s all because of Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers had the stones to make a real coaching change, this would be a bet I’d take. As it is, I don’t think you can trust Mike McCarthy to put together a good gameplan, even one that Rodgers can manipulate to get the team over the hump.
The Minnesota Vikings still don’t have a quarterback under contract, but with the idea out there that they might be circling Kirk Cousins, this +1,200 is a number to jump on today. The Saints, Falcons and Rams are all +1,700, +1,800 and +1,900 respectively and there’s pros and cons with each of them. If I was laying any money down, I’d look hard at the Rams. They just added Marcus Peters to their defensive backfield and have the reigning offensive and defensive players of the year (Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald) returning in 2018.
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