The college football season is coming down to the final few weeks. The ACC is a conference which has been strong at the top. However, the really huge games in the league have already been played: Louisville played Florida State and Clemson, and Clemson beat Florida State a short while ago. North Carolina beat Florida State, and Virginia Tech beat North Carolina to take the lead in the ACC Coastal Division. What are the remaining huge ACC games, not counting the ACC Championship Game, whose matchup is not yet official?
Pittsburgh at Clemson – Week 11
The Clemson Tigers are the leaders in the ACC Atlantic Division. They are also in position to make the College Football Playoff. They are therefore the foremost point of focus in the ACC. If Clemson wins this game, it will clinch the Atlantic, since one of its remaining games is against a non-conference team, South Carolina of the SEC in Week 13. This is the next step toward a conference title, which would be a gateway for the Tigers into the College Football Playoff. At one point in the season, the Panthers looked like they might be a challenge for Clemson but at last check, ESPN gives the Tigers a 92% chance of winning in this spot. The Panthers had won four straight but have since lost back-to-back games and have given up at least 39 points in each of those. That came against Miami and Virginia Tech – teams that are weaker than the Tigers. Clemson has won 46 straight games against unranked teams, so all signs point to them winning but this is still one of the most crucial ACC games remaining.
Clemson at Wake Forest – Week 12
The Tigers, if they can get past Pittsburgh, would have the Atlantic in hand, but this game would try to maintain their status as a leader and favorite for one of the four College Football Playoff spots. As long as Clemson continues to win, it will be in without any doubt or question. The other key for the Tigers is that by not losing, they will ensure a top-three seed in the playoffs, which means avoiding a playoff semifinal against Alabama, a team likely to be the No. 1 seed in that playoff. Wake could be more of a challenge for Clemson than Pitt; they pushed Florida State a little bit, losing 17-6 in a somewhat tighter-than-expected contest.
Louisville at Houston – Week 12
It’s a long shot for Louisville to get into the playoff as a wild card (at large) team. The Cardinals’ best hope died when Florida State lost to Clemson over a week ago. Louisville could not overcome Clemson in the ACC Atlantic. The Cardinals therefore can’t win the ACC title, presuming Clemson wins one more game. Winning the ACC title would have been the best path to the playoff, but that road is about to be closed off. Nevertheless, if Louisville wants that at-large berth, it needs to beat the Houston team which beat Oklahoma earlier in the season. Louisville needs to look as impressive as possible and hope that Houston wins all of its following games. However, the Cardinals would need help from outside sources, such as Washington or Ohio State losing one more game, to give them the true leverage they are seeking. That said, if Louisville loses to Houston, it’s done. This is a must-win for the Cardinals.
Virginia at Virginia Tech – Week 13
This game is the game which will likely determine the outcome of the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are favored to win their next ACC games. In Week 13, North Carolina plays on Friday against North Carolina State. If UNC loses, the division is over, but if UNC wins – as it is favored to do – the Coastal would come down to whether Virginia Tech wins or not. The Hokies would claim the ACC with a win over Virginia due to a head-to-head win over North Carolina. The Tar Heels need Virginia Tech to lose here if they’re tied in the standings with the Hokies on Thanksgiving Day. Virginia is just 1-4 in conference play so far this season.
