The college football season has four weeks left, but only three of them involve regularly scheduled games. One game is the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is not yet a known matchup. Two teams are still alive in the running for that game in the Pac-12 North Division. Three teams are still in the hunt from the Pac-12 South Division. Here are the games which will define those chases.
Washington at Washington State – Week 13
The biggest remaining game in the Pac-12 will be especially big if Washington and Washington State win out heading into this contest. That’s no guarantee at all. However, even if that doesn’t happen – and as long as neither team loses each of the next two weeks – this game will decide the Pac-12 North champion. It’s a remarkable development in a division which had been dominated by Oregon and Stanford over the previous several years. Since the Pac-12 went to a two-division, 12-team format in 2011, Oregon or Stanford had won the North. This is the beginning of a new era. Washington is likely to be favored in this game, but Washington State is a hot team on a roll, and the game is in Pullman, giving WSU an edge which points to a close game.
If Washington State wins this game and wins the North, Washington could still make a New Year’s Six bowl game. That’s the good news for the Pac-12. The bad news would be that Washington would almost certainly be eliminated from the playoff (if it hadn’t lost previously).
USC at Washington – Week 11
This is a fascinating game and an important one. It could influence the outcome in both divisions, not just one. It’s more likely to decide the South than the North, though. The more immediate concern is that USC could knock Washington out of the College Football Playoff. In term of the divisions, though, USC likely needs to finish in a three-way tie with Utah and Colorado to win the South. It needs Utah and Colorado to lose and come back to the pack. It can’t be in a two-way tie with Utah, because Utah won the head-to-head. USC would be happy with a two-way tie with Colorado, but that goal becomes very unrealistic if it can’t beat Washington.
Utah at Colorado – Week 13
It’s likely to be in the South what Washington-Washington State is in the North. The complicating factor is USC, which could steal the division. The Trojans’ position entering this game will determine how big this game is and which team might serve USC’s interests. If Utah loses to Arizona State this Thursday and USC beats Washington and UCLA, Utah will be out of the Pac-12 South hunt. A Utah win over Colorado would then give USC a division title. If, on the other hand, Colorado stumbles to Washington State and USC loses to Washington and Utah beats Arizona State, this game is a winner-take-all game for the South. We’ll see.
Colorado has surprisingly become the top team in the Pac-12 South as they are 5-1 in conference play and 7-2 overall. They enter the week on a three-game winning streak and one of the reasons they have been so good is their defense. To this point in the season, they have allowed the fewest points of any team in the Pac-12 South (153) and are just two points shy of Washington, who has allowed the fewest. This will be a tough test for Utah.
Utah at Arizona State – Week 11
This Thursday, Utah has to stay within shouting distance of Colorado and make that Week 13 game count. This is the tough test for the Utes. If they lose, they fall two games behind Colorado and would need CU to lose to Washington State in Week 12 in order to still be in the chase entering Week 13.
Arizona State is just 2-5 in conference play so far, so this is a game that the Utes will expect to win. However, Arizona State is 4-2 at home this season, so they aren’t going to be a pushover – especially with a chance to play spoiler.
