The ATP Tour prepares for the French Open. You’re almost certain to see Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. They both have very reasonable draws in Paris. Andy Murray is not very likely to lose before the semifinals, and he has a great chance to make the final. What about the players most likely to disappoint at the French Open?
Grigor Dimitrov
There is reason to say that Dimitrov should not be seen as a disappointment anymore, because no one expects him to do anything. However, Dimitrov is in his mid-20s. He is at the point in his professional career where he is supposed to play well and rack up big results. No player Dimitrov’s age should be wondering how to play effective, winning tennis in the biggest tournaments on the calendar. Every tournament which goes by represents a major missed opportunity for Dimitrov to live up to his considerable abilities. He did make the Wimbledon semifinals two years ago. He has shown enough to the world to indicate that he has a lot of upside as a player. Assuming he does crash out of the tournament early again, the word disappointment will be legitimate and fair.
Tomas Berdych
The Czech veteran has fallen on hard times. He made the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2015, the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year, but he hasn’t been able to do much at the other Grand Slam tournaments, failing to reach the quarterfinals in any of them. There’s an increasingly stale quality to Berdych’s career. He is a threatening player at times – he can still show glimpses of his ballstriking ability and has the capacity to get his opponents on their heels. However, that side of Berdych just doesn’t surface very often anymore. It’s a discouraging sign for a player who should have done a lot more in the past. The present doesn’t look much brighter.
Stan Wawrinka
The story of Wawrinka is easy to frame as a disappointment this year in Paris. Wawrinka is defending his 2015 championship, won against Novak Djokovic in a stunning performance. Wawrinka would not be a disappointment if he made the final and lost. Few are expecting him to beat Djokovic two straight years. If he doesn’t at least make the final, though, he will be seen as a disappointment, and appropriately so. He’s too talented and too much of a threat to Djokovic to lose early in this tournament. Yet, even when he won major championships, Wawrinka would not become a steady and relentlessly predictable player throughout a tennis season. He is such an up and down force in tennis, so there’s no easy way to foresee what he’ll do. Yet, if he has a bad day early in the tournament, Roland Garros will be a massive failure.
On one hand, it may look like there’s an opening for Wawrinka when you factor that this is Djokovic’s weakest surface, Murray doesn’t thrive on clay, there’s no Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal has been inconsistent this year. However, Wawrinka is very unlikely to repeat as champion here. Don’t be tantalized by his odds at the French Open.
Marin Cilic
The Croatian, who won the 2014 U.S. Open title, should be better than he is. He should do more at Roland Garros than he probably will. He is the No. 10 seed, so he should at least get to the fourth round. However, he faces a very tricky opponent, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, in the second round. If he loses that match, he will leave Paris with the cloud of disappointment over his head.
Overall, Cilic just isn’t the best option on the clay courts. He is just 7-6 on the red surface last year and 3-1 this year. Over the last three years, he’s been far more effective on the hard courts. If this were the U.S. or Australian Open, Cilic might be someone you want to consider. On the clay courts at the French Open, he’s someone that you’ll want to be avoiding at the betting window. He’ll disappoint you in terms of investment.
