The ATP Tour is bracing for Wimbledon as it makes its way through the grass-court season. The two 500-point tournaments in Halle and Queen’s Club are winding down. Then, everyone will move to suburban London for the biggest tournament on the planet. We know that Novak Djokovic is favored and is likely to be the man to beat, but who else might be a good betting option at Wimbledon to surprise. We took a look at four players who aren’t top-level contenders, but can make some noise.
John Isner
There is no doubt that John Isner struggles to make deep runs in Grand Slam tournaments. Playing best-of-five-set matches is more of a strain on Isner’s tall and rangy body, especially his legs. Isner gets tired. He loses velocity and consistency on his serve. Opponents are able to rope him into more rallies and run him around the court. The cycle continues and develops. Opponents get stronger as the match goes on. They gain more of a margin for error and more of a belief they can win the match by outlasting Isner. With all these realities, why expect Isner to make the Wimbledon quarterfinals?
Simply, on grass, Isner’s always-strong serve is going to win him more easy points and make his service games flow by that much more quickly. He just has to be able to win the tiebreakers that often come his way in a match, given that his return game is rarely able to secure a break of serve even while he holds six times. Isner’s history says he won’t do anything, but his talent suggests he can still make a run.
Moreover, he’s playing really well these days. He’s the No. 17 player in the world, he has just set a record for aces in a match at Queensland (43) and he’s won three of four grass matches so far this season. He’s a good bet to surprise early in London.
Philipp Kohlschreiber
The story on Kohlschreiber is that he’s good enough to push the top players, but rarely tough enough to win matches in which he pushes the best. He beat Novak Djokovic at the 2009 French Open, but that was before Djokovic became a next-level player. Kohlschreiber just doesn’t play the big points well enough, a familiar problem for talented but underachieving players. Yet, Kohlschreiber plays well on grass. He is a stylist, and stylists do well on lawns. Kohlschreiber made the final of the grass tournament in Stuttgart. He has moved into the quarterfinals of Halle, another grass event, beating Marcel Granollers and Karlovic – another man on this list. He could be tough, even though he’s made the quarterfinals of only one tournament (Wimbledon in 2012).
Ivo Karlovic
The things which apply to Isner are in many ways the things which apply to Karlovic. He often doesn’t go deep in tournaments and he has no singles titles this year, but the potential is almost always there even though he’s lost eight of 10 singles matches this year. He’s no longer a spring chicken as he’s 37 years old now, but he’s not a player to be overlooked.
Karlovic simply has no margin for error in tiebreakers, but the flip side of the coin is that unless he’s playing Federer or Djokovic or Murray, he’ll probably get to a position where he just needs to win a few tiebreaker points to win sets. He has a fighting chance to make the quarterfinals – especially given how many players are either beat up (Federer, Nadal) or just down in general (Del Potro, Nishikori).
Marin Cilic
The Croatian has not done much of distinction this year, but he’s made Wimbledon quarterfinals multiple times before, and he’s made the semifinals or better at each of the last two U.S. Opens. He had a terrible French Open and had been struggling in general, but you have to like his effort at the ATP AEGON Championships. He has reached the semifinals and while he’s not likely to beat Andy Murray, the fact that he’s strung together some wins on grass is very encouraging. He can flip on the switch and surprise everyone. He has that capacity, and he did that at the 2014 U.S. Open.
