The 2015-16 NBA season is right around the corner and that means now is the time for fantasy basketball drafts cramming. Whether it’s a snake draft or auction, the most important aspect of any championship team is finding value by targeting the best available players.
Nobody needs to be told how good Stephen Curry, James Harden and LeBron James are from a fantasy perspective but one important and often overlooked aspect is age and the potential for declining production. You want to avoid the landmines. Here is a look at four potential over the hill players to stay away from this fantasy season.
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
Shooting Guard
Kobe is set to return from injury for the Lakers once again this season but he has been limited to just 41 games combined over the last two seasons. At 37-years-old, there has to be an obvious concern about whether or not he can stay healthy.
Kobe did average 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in 35 games last season but his field goal and free throw percentages were down and it’s hard to imagine them bouncing back after he missed most of last season again. The Lakers added some considerable talent in the offseason that will help Kobe shoulder the load but that also means they’ll take away from his production. Beyond that, there’s supposedly a minutes limit in place too.
And that’s on top of whether or not he can stay healthy. Let someone else deal with this headache.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Power Forward
After taking a pay cut to help them reload in the offseason, Duncan will be back for one more championship run with the Spurs but from a fantasy perspective, his value will certainly take a hit again. Duncan’s point totals have declined in each of the last two seasons and while he remains a staple as a player that produces double-doubles, his minutes and games played are both expected to decline this season.
Duncan managed to play in 77 games last year but he is 39 years old and with a loaded cast around him – including LaMarcus Aldridge, David West and Boris Diaw – and another NBA title the ultimate goal, he will almost certainly rest more often this season. That will cause another dip in his fantasy value.
Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat
Point Guard
Miami reloaded in its own way this offseason with Goran Dragic signing a long-term extension, Amar’e Stoudamire coming over as a free agent and Justise Winslow drafted in the first round. The Heat will also get a healthy Chris Bosh back in the lineup and that should help the Heat as a team.
However, when it comes to Wade’s fantasy stock, it has to take a hit as the team doesn’t need him as the centerpiece anymore. He did average 21.5 points, 4.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game last season but he will turn 34 years old this year and he has played in more than 62 games only once over the last four years. The combination decline (due to age), more cooks in the kitchen and the potential for injuries means Wade is one player that GM’s will be better off avoiding in NBA fantasy drafts this season.
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Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Power Forward
Missing out on DeAndre Jordan after losing both Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis could very well have a devastating effect on a Dallas team. It will be very interesting to see how the veteran Nowitzki is impacted. Disco Dirk turned 37 years old this summer and while some people think he’ll have more opportunities to produce, the question is can he handle it.
He’s going to be facing a lot of defensive attention and he’s just not the superstar he once was. He has a lot of miles on his legs and is coming off a year where he averaged 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.4 three-point shots in 77 games last season. Those are pedestrian numbers as is, so with the situation worsening, you’re better to stay away.
