The Championships, Wimbledon, are about to begin. Novak Djokovic is expected to win the men’s tournament, and Serena Williams is expected to win the women’s tournament, but they both have difficult opponents in their way. Other players received easier draws. Now let’s see if they make the most of them.
Madison Keys
There is a great dark horse choice to make the final, and it’s Keys. She received about as good a draw as anyone could have hoped for. Keys has Sara Errani, a great clay-courter but a terrible grass-court player, in her subsection. She should be able to move to the fourth round. In the fourth round, she gets Simona Halep, a player who has been very inconsistent and injury-prone. Keys should be able to overpower Halep on grass. She might not be able to do the same to other opponents. She got a good section of the draw. Her quarterfinal opponent could be fourth-seeded Angelique Kerber, who has done virtually nothing since winning the Australian Open. Kerber lost very early in the French Open. Keys is playing better than Kerber and has a lot of matchups she can work with.
Andy Murray
The only really tough match for Murray before a possible final (in which Novak Djokovic would be the likely opponent) is Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16. In the quarterfinals, Murray’s highest possible seeded opponent is Richard Gasquet, whom he easily beat in the French Open once he managed to split the first two sets. He cruised in sets three and four. He should be very happy with Gasquet as a quarterfinal opponent. That might be easier than another potentially lower-seeded opponent in that round. In the semifinals, Murray was spared Roger Federer, who was thrown in with Djokovic’s half of the draw. Stan Wawrinka was easy prey for Murray at the French Open as well, and Wawrinka has never been very good on grass. Wawrinka uses a big and elaborate windup for his shots, especially his backhand. In this sense, Wawrinka is a lot like Murray’s coach, Ivan Lendl. The windup and takeback on shots were so forceful that on grass, a surface with lower and less consistent bounces, Lendl could not hit the ball consistently hard. Lendl had to try to shorten points and come to the net. Wawrinka faces a similar challenge. He just can’t tee up his backhand to the same degree on grass that he can on hardcourts and clay. Murray just has to get past Kyrgios. If he does, it should be smooth sailing until the final.
Dominic Thiem
The eighth-seeded Austrian has said he’d be happy with the third round at Wimbledon, but he can do so much more with this draw. Joao Sousa, never good on grass, is his seeded opponent in the third round. Tomas Berdych or Alexander Zverev would await in the fourth round. Thiem has clearly played better than both men in 2016. In the quarterfinals, Thiem could play fourth-seeded Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. The above note about Wawrinka’s struggles on grass gives Thiem a real road to the semifinals.
Venus Williams
Venus was thrown into a portion of the draw with an unproven seeded player in round three (Daria Kasatkina) and a poor grass-court player in round four (Carla Suarez Navarro). Her opponent in the quarterfinals could be second-seeded Garbine Muguruza. If Muguruza gets to that stage, Venus will be in trouble, but it’s worth saying that if Muguruza loses before the quarterfinals, Venus will be favored in every match before the semifinals, and possibly the semifinals as well. It’s a pretty good draw for a five-time Wimbledon champion.
However, the downside is that Williams has been terrible this season. She made it to the Round of 16 at the French Open, but she lost in the second round at Rome, in the second round in Charleston, in the first round in Miami, in the first round at Indian Wells and in the first round at the Australian Open. She might have an easy path but she’s liable to lose to anyone at any point at Wimbledon.
