Every year the most knowledgeable college football minds in the media and in sports handicapping predict how the season will play out including which teams are most likely to reach the national championship game. Sometimes they are right, but sometimes they are completely off with a number of key factors tripping up their predictions along the way. One of the most important factors is the college football schedule as some teams simply have tougher slates than others. Here is a look at the top four contenders with the toughest path to the national championship game.
Florida State (ACC)
The Seminoles managed to make it to a “New Year’s Six” bowl in a rebuilding season in 2015. With 17 returning starters including 11 on offense, expectations are much higher for Florida State heading in to the 2016 season. There is no doubt that Jimbo Fisher has some impressive talent at his disposal but FSU’s schedule is loaded with tough opponents that could trip them up along the way. The Seminoles will open the year with a tough challenge from Ole Miss in Orlando and while a loss in that game wouldn’t destroy their national title hopes it certainly wouldn’t help. Florida State should be able to handle Louisville and USF but they open October with a home game against North Carolina before visiting Miami and those are two tough opponents that have the potential to knock them off course. A couple of weeks later will be the ACC showdown everybody has pegged as one of the games of the year with the Seminoles set to host the defending ACC champion Clemson. Florida State will likely have to survive each of those two opponents to be in the national title picture in to November but they still have a couple of tough opponents to close out the year with a road game at Syracuse followed by a home date with Florida in their regular season finale. The Seminoles have the talent to contend but their schedule is loaded with potential landmines that could blow their national titles hopes away.
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Ohio State has to replace more starters than any other team in the country and it certainly won’t help them that their schedule will be one of the most difficult in the nation. Bowling Green and Tulsa aren’t major powers but it’s important to remember they won’t be pushovers either with the Buckeyes still figuring things out following some major changes on both sides of the football. It won’t be long before Ohio State will have to face the defending Big 12 champions Oklahoma in the third week of the season and a loss that early would be a significant blow. It doesn’t help that the Buckeyes draw Wisconsin and Northwestern out of the Big Ten West with a road game against Penn State sandwiched between those two opponents. The regular season ends with the 1-2 punch of a road game at Michigan State followed by a home game against Michigan and the margin for error will be very thin.
Oklahoma (Big 12)
The Sooners return more than half of their starters from last year’s Big 12 championship-winning team, but their schedule will be tougher and there will be plenty of opportunities for them to stumble along the way. Oklahoma opens the year against one of the hottest programs in the country in Houston followed by a visit from the Buckeyes just two weeks later. They could very well be 1-2 out of the gate and by that point they would be in tough to turn things around. As if that wasn’t tough enough, the Sooners will head on the road to face TCU two weeks later followed by a second-consecutive road game against Texas the following week. By the time they reach any perceived lull in their schedule it might not even matter. Kansas State and Texas Tech aren’t Big 12 title contenders by any means, but the schedule ramps right back up at the end of the year with Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State lined up to close out the season. That should mean a tough finish for Oklahoma. The Sooners have the talent to contend for a Big 12 title again this season, but their tough schedule could be the obstacle that keeps them from repeating as the defending conference champion.
USC (Pac-12)
All of the talk about USC as a legitimate national title contender could be hushed in a hurry when they open the season against Alabama in Arlington. The Trojans will be in tough against the defending national champion Crimson Tide and even if they survive that contest their schedule the rest of the way is still extremely difficult. USC will host Utah State one week later and the following week they will have to make the trip to Stanford for another rivalry game against the Cardinal. A home-heavy October slate could keep the Trojans in the mix if they survive September, but the schedule will ramp right up again in November with home games against Oregon and Notre Dame and a road game against UCLA. There is no denying that USC has the talent to contend for a national title, but the schedule could be the biggest obstacle in their way as they will face arguably the toughest path to a national title.
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